How common are serious adverse events (hospitalization, death) after COVID-19 vaccination versus unvaccinated people?
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
Available surveillance and published analyses show COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of severe COVID outcomes—vaccinated people have lower rates of COVID-associated emergency visits, hospitalizations and deaths compared with unvaccinated groups in multiple reports (for example, vaccine effectiveness estimates of 76% and 56% against ED/UC visits in children for 2024–2025 vaccines) [1]. Safety monitoring systems such as VAERS detect rare adverse events (for example, myocarditis) but cannot by themselves establish causation; regulators are investigating a handful of reported deaths in children that some FDA officials have flagged, while many outside experts urge careful review because the evidence publicly shown so far is limited [2] [3] [4].
1. Vaccines cut severe COVID outcomes—repeated findings from public health agencies
Large U.S. surveillance networks and health agencies report that up‑to‑date COVID-19 vaccination meaningfully lowers the chance of emergency visits and hospitalizations for COVID. The CDC-funded VISION network estimated 2024–2025 vaccines conferred about 76% effectiveness against COVID-associated ED/UC visits for children 9 months–4 years and 56% in those 5–17 years when compared with those who did not receive the updated vaccine [1]. Multiple public sources consistently state vaccination reduces risk of severe illness, hospitalization and death and remains the primary recommended protection, especially for older adults and those at high risk [5] [1].
2. Surveillance systems detect rare events but are not proof of causation
The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is a public early-warning system designed to pick up unexpected patterns in post‑vaccination reports; anyone can submit reports and the presence of a report does not mean the vaccine caused the event [2] [6]. VAERS data can prompt further study in other safety systems (CDC’s VSD, FDA’s BEST, CISA) that are designed to assess causality more robustly [2].
3. Myocarditis: a rare confirmed risk, but still outweighed by protection from COVID
Investigations and studies continue to show myocarditis as a rare but real adverse event after mRNA COVID vaccines, particularly in younger males after early-dose schedules; researchers and public health experts emphasize the risk from actual SARS‑CoV‑2 infection is higher than the vaccine risk for myocarditis in most analyses cited in recent reporting [3] [7]. Scientific teams are working to understand mechanisms and relative magnitude; a recent preclinical study illuminated possible causes but also stressed important caveats in translation from animals to people [7].
4. Recent controversy: FDA claims about child deaths and the limits of public evidence
In late 2025, an FDA official asserted at least 10 child deaths were linked to COVID vaccines based on VAERS reports; that claim has sparked alarm and skepticism because the memo cited limited public evidence and experts warn that linking deaths to vaccination requires detailed reviews (autopsies, medical records, infection status) and cannot rest on VAERS reports alone [3] [4] [8]. News outlets and scientists have challenged the assertion and called for transparent, third‑party review; FDA and CDC generally caution that reported events do not establish cause-and-effect without further analysis [4] [2].
5. Comparative rates: vaccinated versus unvaccinated people — consistent pattern in multiple studies
Multiple fact‑checking and surveillance reports find unvaccinated people have substantially higher rates of hospitalization and death from COVID than vaccinated people. Earlier CDC-linked analyses and more recent regional data show hospitalization rates markedly higher in unvaccinated groups (examples cited in aggregated reporting show multiples ranging from several‑fold to dozens‑fold depending on period and age group) [9] [10] [11]. Reporting in 2024–2025 COVID‑NET and other CDC slides continued to show children and other age groups’ hospitalization burdens and the protective effect of vaccination [12] [1].
6. How to interpret the numbers: context, age and baseline risk matter
Absolute risk of vaccine-associated serious events is very low; absolute risk of COVID hospitalization and death depends on age, immunity from prior infection, comorbidities and circulating variants. For children, COVID hospitalization rates in recent seasons were described as tens per 100,000 by age group (for example, a 53 per 100,000 overall pediatric rate during one period cited) while vaccine effectiveness estimates quantify relative reductions in ED/UC visits and by extension severe outcomes [1]. Sources stress that both relative and absolute risks must be weighed in policy and individual decisions [1] [5].
7. Competing narratives and political context
Reporting shows the vaccine safety debate has become politicized: some officials and commentators emphasize rare adverse events flagged in surveillance systems, while public‑health agencies and many experts point to extensive evidence that benefits far outweigh risks and urge continued vaccination to prevent hospitalization and death [3] [4] [8]. Journalists and scientists have noted that selective use of VAERS without full causal analysis or withholding supporting medical records can mislead the public [2] [4].
8. Bottom line and what’s missing in public reporting
Available sources show vaccination reduces severe COVID outcomes and that serious vaccine adverse events are rare and under active study; VAERS signals require follow‑up in stronger epidemiologic systems before assigning causation [1] [2]. Current public reporting about the FDA’s assertion regarding child deaths lacks the detailed clinical evidence experts say is necessary to prove causation; independent, transparent case reviews are needed and not yet publicly available in the reporting cited [4] [8].