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Fact check: How did 2024 US soybean exports to China compare with 2023 figures?
Executive Summary
Available reporting and USDA-derived summaries indicate the United States shipped roughly 25 million metric tons of soybeans to China in the 2023/24 marketing year and recorded about $12.64 billion in U.S. soybean export sales to China in 2024, but the provided sources do not supply a direct, apples‑to‑apples year‑over‑year comparison to a single defined 2023 calendar or marketing year. Multiple pieces of evidence point toward a decline in China’s share of U.S. soybean demand relative to earlier years, yet the precise 2024-versus-2023 delta cannot be calculated from the supplied material alone [1] [2].
1. What claims the sources make and where the gaps are — a direct question answered bluntly
The assembled sources make three central claims: the U.S. shipped nearly 25 MMT of soybeans to China in the 2023/24 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China in 2024 were valued at approximately $12.64 billion, and China’s purchases from the U.S. have shrunk as a share of its total soybean imports compared with the mid-2010s [1] [2]. None of the supplied analyses, however, present a clear, single metric that represents “2023” in the same definition used for the 2024 figures (calendar year vs. marketing year) and thus no direct, reliable year‑over‑year comparison between 2024 and 2023 can be produced from these sources alone [1] [2].
2. What the numeric data in the sources actually shows — numbers you can use today
The pieces that supply concrete numbers report that U.S. soybean exports totaled about 52.21 MMT in 2024 with roughly $24.47 billion in value, of which China accounted for $12.64 billion in imports from the U.S.; another report specifies roughly 25 MMT of shipments to China during MY 2023/24 [2] [1]. These figures establish that China remained a major buyer in 2024/2023‑24 but they do not define the comparable 2023 measurement (calendar vs. marketing year) or list a 2023 total to compute a precise percentage or tonnage change year over year [1] [2].
3. Broader market context that changes how you should read the numbers
Contextual reporting shows China’s market share of U.S. soybeans has fallen from about 41% in 2016 to roughly 20% of China’s purchases in 2024, and that Brazil substantially expanded shipments to China — reporting 42.26 MMT to China in January–July 2025 versus U.S. shipments of 16.57 MMT over the same period — which signals structural shifts in sourcing beyond year‑to‑year noise [3]. These dynamics underline that even if 2024 volumes to China were substantial in absolute terms, relative importance and competitive position have changed because Brazil’s gains and policy/trade disruptions have reshaped flows [3].
4. Conflicting or supplementary claims worth flagging — buyers, deals, and seasonal nuances
Some reporting cites discrete purchase agreements and seasonal commitments that can obscure headline figures: one source notes China agreed to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in a given season, down from 22.5 MMT the prior season, reflecting contracted commitments rather than realized shipments, and illustrating how booked purchases and actual shipments can diverge [4]. This distinction matters because USDA trade totals and marketing‑year shipment data may not synchronously reflect short‑term memoranda of understanding or announced trade deals [4].
5. Why the question “How did 2024 compare with 2023?” cannot be answered definitively from these materials
The supplied analyses use different temporal definitions, report either marketing‑year or calendar‑year figures, and sometimes report contractual purchase commitments instead of shipments; as a result, there is missing comparability between the 2024 numbers and any 2023 baseline in the set of sources. Because the sources do not provide a transparent, single 2023 figure defined the same way as the 2024 figures, any numeric claim of increase or decrease would be inferential rather than evidence‑based from these documents alone [1] [2].
6. Bottom line and what you’d need to close the gap — the precise data to request next
From the provided material, the defensible bottom line is that the U.S. shipped about 25 MMT to China in MY 2023/24 and recorded $12.64 billion in China soybean purchases in 2024, and broader evidence indicates a decline in China’s share of U.S. soybean trade relative to earlier years, but the exact 2024 vs. 2023 change cannot be computed without a consistent 2023 metric [1] [2] [3]. To produce a definitive year‑over‑year comparison you should request a single authoritative dataset that lists U.S. soybean shipments to China by the same time frame for both 2023 and 2024 (USDA export tonnage by calendar year and by marketing year), and then the comparison can be calculated precisely.