How do 2025 job additions compare to 2024 and pre-pandemic levels?
Executive summary
The U.S. added roughly 584,000 payroll jobs in 2025 — about one‑third of the gain recorded in 2024 and the weakest annual net hiring outside recession years since 2003 (preliminary BLS totals) [1] [2]. That pace — an average monthly gain of about 49,000 — is far below 2024’s average monthly increase of roughly 168,000 and also well under pre‑pandemic monthly norms of about 166,000 in 2018–2019 [3] [4] [5].
1. What the headline numbers say: a sharp pullback from 2024
Preliminary BLS and major‑press tallies put 2025 payroll growth at about 584,000 for the year, compared with roughly 2.0 million jobs added in 2024 — a collapse in net hiring that translates to an average monthly gain of 49,000 in 2025 versus 168,000 monthly in 2024 [1] [3] [6]. Reporters and analysts described 2025 as the weakest year for job growth since the pandemic and, outside of the financial crisis and COVID disruptions, the weakest since 2003 [6] [2].
2. How 2025 compares with pre‑pandemic trends
Measured against the pre‑pandemic era, the slowdown is stark: pre‑pandemic annual additions in 2018–2019 and the longer run typically amounted to about 2 million per year (roughly 166,000 per month), so 2025’s 584,000 is a fraction of that pace and well below the longer‑run average [5] [4]. Indeed, analysts note that 2025 never produced a single month of hiring larger than the 2024 monthly average, underscoring how far below historical norms monthly flows fell [7].
3. Under the surface: composition, revisions and measurement caveats
The BLS release is preliminary and scheduled to be revised through the annual benchmarking process, so headline totals for 2024 and 2025 are likely to be adjusted; the BLS and major outlets warned that revisions could pare the numbers further and that data collection hiccups (including a federal shutdown) complicated some household survey months [6] [1]. Sectoral concentration also matters: health care and social assistance were big contributors to 2025’s small net gain, and without them some analysts say the year would have shown net job losses, highlighting unevenness across industries [8].
4. Broader labor‑market context: unemployment, participation and wages
Despite the slowdown in hires, several indicators do not paint a collapsing market: unemployment stayed relatively low by historical standards even as it ticked up, and prime‑age employment‑to‑population ratios remained close to pre‑pandemic levels, per labor researchers at the EPI and others [9]. Wages continued to grow modestly year‑over‑year; Business Insider noted average hourly earnings rising about 3.8% from December 2024 to December 2025, pointing to continued tightness in pay despite weak hiring [5].
5. Explanations, debate and political framing
Economists and commentators offered multiple explanations and cautions: some point to structural slowdowns in hiring that began in 2024 rather than a single policy pivot, while others warn about demand weakness or shifts in posting and hiring in knowledge sectors [5] [4]. Political actors quickly sought to link the slowdown to policy choices, but independent economists such as Jed Kolko emphasize that hiring has been subdued since 2024 and that blaming any single cause — from AI to policy changes — oversimplifies a multi‑factor story [5].
6. The takeaway: much weaker than 2024, well below pre‑pandemic norms, but not a uniform collapse
In raw terms, 2025’s net payroll additions were dramatically smaller than 2024’s and materially lower than pre‑pandemic annual and monthly norms — a marked deceleration that made 2025 the weakest hiring year outside severe downturns [1] [5] [2]. At the same time, several labor‑market indicators remain historically moderate rather than catastrophic, revisions are pending, and the slowdown is uneven across sectors and demographic groups — all reasons for cautious interpretation rather than a single headline narrative [6] [9].