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Is turkey prices down
Executive summary
Retail turkey costs are contested in recent coverage: wholesale turkey prices are widely reported as substantially higher year‑over‑year (estimates range from about $1.32 to roughly $2.00 per pound and increases of 40–75%), while at the retail/consumer level some surveys and retailer promotions show lower advertised retail prices for Thanksgiving baskets and featured whole birds, producing a mixed picture for consumers (examples: wholesale $1.32/lb and 40% rise [1]; Farm Bureau survey finds retail Thanksgiving basket down and a 16.3% drop in what retailers charged for a 16‑lb turkey [2]; Purdue projects retail average ~$2.05/lb, +25% [3]).
1. Wholesale prices: clear increases, multiple estimates
News outlets and market analysts consistently report that wholesale turkey prices have risen significantly compared with a year earlier — CBS cites USDA forecasts of about $1.32 per pound, a 40% increase [1]; Purdue and other outlets put wholesale nearer $1.71–$2.00 per pound or project wholesale rising to around $2.00 [4] [5]. Local and regional reporting offers other estimates (for example, wholesale at $1.68/lb or wholesale increases of 70% in a Texas A&M comment) showing some variation by data source [6]. The U.S. Department of Agriculture weekly reports provide the underlying negotiated price data for traders [7].
2. Retail prices and shopper experience: discounts, bundles and mixed signals
Despite higher wholesale costs, several observers say retail prices shoppers face this Thanksgiving have not uniformly increased. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s survey found the classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 averaged $55.18, down 5% from 2024, and reported retailers were charging 16.3% less for a 16‑lb turkey in their shopping window — a sign retailers are using promotions and swaps [2] [8]. National chains and bundle promotions (Walmart, Aldi, store coupons) are highlighted by local coverage as driving very low advertised per‑pound prices or highly discounted turkeys in ads [2] [9].
3. Why wholesale and retail diverge: industry pressures and retail tactics
Analysts and trade groups point to two forces explaining the gap: supply shocks pushing wholesale up and aggressive retailer promotion compressing or masking retail prices. Disease (avian influenza and other flock illnesses) and longer‑term production declines are cited as constricting supply and raising wholesale prices [1] [4] [10]. At the same time, retailers are described offering loss‑leader pricing, swapping less‑expensive items into bundled baskets, or substituting brands to produce lower advertised basket prices — tactics that can lower what consumers pay at the register even when wholesale costs are up [2] [8] [9].
4. How big is the increase for consumers? Conflicting estimates
Different research groups give different headline numbers for what consumers might see. Purdue’s model predicts an average retail price around $2.05 per pound in November (about +25% vs. last year), implying a ~15‑lb bird would cost about $31 [3] [11]. Other outlets report wholesale jumps of 40–75% and project retail effects accordingly [1] [4]. Yet the Farm Bureau’s shopper survey and retailer promotions produced a lower overall Thanksgiving basket cost and examples of deeply discounted turkeys, indicating some shoppers will pay less or find deals [2] [8].
5. Regional, timing and product differences matter
Available reporting notes important caveats: wholesale measures and retail feature prices cover different product forms (fresh vs. frozen, whole hens vs. mixed sizes), and price behavior shifts rapidly in the weeks before Thanksgiving as stores run promotions [7] [2]. National averages may not reflect local advertisements or membership/coupon‑only deals that can produce very low per‑pound retail prices in specific stores or regions [9].
6. What to watch and practical takeaway for shoppers
If you want a turkey and the lowest cost: monitor store ads and coupons in the days before Thanksgiving, compare bundled offers (Walmart, Aldi and others cited), and consider frozen or in‑store promotion opportunities — these tactics are already noted as lowering the retail bill despite higher wholesale costs [2] [9]. If you’re tracking market trends, USDA weekly turkey reports and analyses from Purdue provide the clearest signals on wholesale supply pressure and projected retail averages [7] [3].
Limitations and disagreement: sources agree wholesale prices are up, but they disagree on the magnitude and on how much of that increase reaches consumers; the Farm Bureau finds a lower retail basket amid heavy retailer promotions while Purdue and multiple outlets forecast higher average retail pounds [1] [3] [2]. Available sources do not mention longer‑term policy outcomes or post‑holiday price adjustments beyond these current forecasts and surveys.