What role did avian influenza, feed costs, and supply-chain disruptions play in egg price changes between 2021 and 2025?
Executive summary
Avian influenza (HPAI) was the dominant shock pushing U.S. egg prices sharply higher between 2021 and 2025, triggering the culling of tens to hundreds of millions of birds and causing wholesale prices to spike above $8 per dozen at peaks in early 2025 [1] [2]. Rising feed and other production costs — feed can be 60–70% of production costs — and supply‑chain frictions (transport, labor, packaging, regulatory shifts) amplified and prolonged the price surge and the uneven regional impacts retailers and consumers felt [3] [4] [5].
1. Avian influenza: the immediate supply shock that hatched the crisis
The reporting is unanimous that outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, starting in 2022 and recurring through 2024–25, reduced the laying-hen population and directly tightened the egg supply. Multiple sources quantify the scale: USDA and economists cited totals from tens of millions up to more than 168 million affected birds at points in 2025, with consequential depopulation of egg-layer flocks that removed large swaths of production capacity and helped drive wholesale prices to record highs above $8 per dozen [1] [2] [6]. USDA and ERS analyses link those flock losses to abrupt wholesale spikes around winter holiday demand, when inventories were already seasonally low [7] [8].
2. How the disease translated into dramatic price swings
When HPAI is detected farms must cull or depopulate flocks and sometimes remain empty for weeks, delaying replacement. Analysts and university economists explain that the scale and seasonality of outbreaks — including waves timed against holiday demand — created a classic supply shock: concentrated losses, inelastic short‑term supply response and surging wholesale prices that later fed through retail channels [9] [7] [8]. USDA and market trackers show volatile movements: wholesale averages fell from peaks to lower levels within months as confirmations paused and seasonal demand eased, but retail declines lagged [10] [8] [6].
3. Feed costs: the steady engine behind higher baseline costs
Industry and supply‑chain commentators emphasize feed as the largest single production cost, commonly cited at roughly 60–70% of total egg‑production expenses. That means higher corn and soybean meal prices, themselves driven by global commodity dynamics, raise the marginal cost of every egg and increase the floor under retail prices even absent disease shocks [3] [4]. Several outlets tied rising feed and energy costs to producers’ elevated operating expenses in 2024–25 and used that to explain why prices stayed high even after some wholesale relief [11] [12].
4. Supply‑chain frictions and regional/regulatory layers that amplified pain
Beyond birds and feed, transportation bottlenecks, driver shortages, packaging and labor issues raised distribution costs and slowed price normalization; refrigerated trucking shortages were flagged as particularly important for timely egg movement [5]. State policy and market structure also mattered: egg‑supply constraints combined with local cage‑free laws and regional production losses produced sharp regional price variation, with some states reporting much higher retail prices than others [5] [13] [14].
5. Interaction effects: why three forces produced more than the sum of each
Sources frame the crisis as a “convergence” problem: HPAI cut supply, feed and energy raised producers’ cost base, and supply‑chain/regulatory frictions impeded both redistribution and rapid replenishment. Analysts and trade groups argue that this combination explains both the rapid spikes (sudden supply removal) and the persistence/volatility of high prices into 2025 (structural costs and logistics) [15] [12] [3].
6. Signs of moderation, uncertainty and competing explanations
By spring 2025 some indicators showed easing: USDA and ERS reported falling wholesale prices from February peaks and fewer new HPAI confirmations, and USDA forecasts suggested downward adjustments as production recovered and imports were used to stabilize supply [10] [8] [16]. But other sources warned of continued risk if outbreaks recur, and some commentators highlighted non‑disease causes — outdated supply chains or regulatory changes — as important contributors to high and uneven prices [17] [3]. The reporting also notes political framing of the USDA response and contested claims about causes and responsibility [18] [13].
7. What the data do — and do not — show
Available sources consistently tie the largest year‑to‑year jumps (2022 surge, late‑2024 and early‑2025 peaks) primarily to avian influenza and quantify dramatic wholesale spikes and large bird losses [7] [2] [1]. They also document feed as a major cost driver [3] [4] and describe logistics and regional regulation as amplifiers [5] [17]. Available sources do not provide a single, reconciled numeric decomposition that assigns precise percentage shares of price change to each factor; such a precise attribution across 2021–2025 is not found in the current reporting.
Bottom line: avian influenza inflicted the central supply shock; feed prices and supply‑chain/regulatory frictions raised the cost baseline and slowed recovery, producing spikes and persistent volatility in egg prices through 2025 [1] [3] [5].