Which countries are the biggest buyers of Canadian aluminum in 2025 and why?
Executive summary
Canada’s largest buyer of its aluminum in 2025 remains the United States, absorbing the lion’s share of Canadian shipments thanks to geography, integrated supply chains and longstanding trade ties [1] [2]. Secondary buyers are shifting: European markets expanded markedly in 2025 as U.S. tariffs and Europe’s incoming carbon rules created openings for low‑carbon Canadian metal, though precise country‑by‑country totals for 2025 are not fully disclosed in publicly available summaries [3] [4] [5].
1. The United States: an entrenched, near‑term hegemon
The United States continued to be by far the biggest buyer of Canadian aluminum in 2025 because most North American manufacturing remains deeply integrated across the border and U.S. demand for unwrought and semi‑finished metal is structurally large; Statista and industry sources report that Canada is the dominant supplier to U.S. aluminum markets and that roughly 60–75% of U.S. aluminum imports come from Canada, reflecting the scale and proximity of cross‑border flows [1] [2]. That commercial grip persisted despite political risk: recent U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum have intermittently depressed volumes but have not severed the supply chains that underpin automotive, aerospace and defence production in both countries [6] [7].
2. Europe: the fastest‑growing destination as policy reshapes markets
European buyers emerged as the fastest‑growing external market for Canadian aluminum in 2025 as exporters re‑allocated volumes away from the U.S. margin and sought buyers willing to pay for low‑carbon credentials; reporting from The Logic and trade advisers notes large quarterly swings with some Canadian producers routing significant shipments to Europe (Alouette reported Europe taking 57% of its shipments in one quarter) as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and buyer preference for low‑emissions metal opened demand for Canada’s hydro‑powered smelters [3] [4]. Analysts argue this is both a commercial opportunity and a hedging response to U.S. tariff risk: EU importers gain by sourcing aluminum with a lower embedded carbon footprint and Canadian firms gain pricing leverage under CBAM’s incentives [4] [7].
3. Asia and other markets: marginal but strategically important
While Asia and other regions do buy Canadian aluminum, they remained much smaller customers in 2025 compared with North America and Europe; publicly available export datasets and industry overviews show that most Canadian primary metal historically flows toward the U.S. and, increasingly, Europe, and that Asia has not usurped North American dominance in 2025 according to the trade snapshots provided [1] [8]. This limited presence reflects logistics, existing supplier relationships in Asia and the premium placed by some consumers on locally sourced material or cheaper alternatives—factors that constrain large‑scale redirection of Canadian primary metal to distant markets within a single year [7] [8].
4. Why buyers choose Canadian aluminum: cost, carbon and contracts
Buyers select Canadian aluminum for a mix of reasons: proximity and established contracts for U.S. buyers; low carbon intensity for many European purchasers seeking CBAM‑friendly supply chains; and competitive production from large players such as Alcoa, Rio Tinto and Alouette that can direct spot volumes to the most profitable markets [9] [3] [10]. Industry groups explicitly promote Canada’s “green aluminum” story—Quebec smelters’ reliance on hydroelectricity means lower CO2 per tonne versus the global average—a narrative that dovetails with EU policy and helps explain the pivot to European buyers [7] [2].
5. Competing narratives and limits of the public record
Stakeholders push different narratives: industry trade groups emphasize Canada’s indispensability and decarbonization edge to defend exports to the U.S. and court EU buyers [2] [4], while private analyses warn that stacked U.S. tariffs—reported up to 50% in some summaries—create a volatility that companies can only temporarily offset by diverting shipments [7] [3]. The available reporting establishes clear directional trends—U.S. biggest buyer, Europe rising—but does not publish a comprehensive, audited table of 2025 final country‑by‑country purchase volumes in the provided sources, so precise ranked tonnages for every destination cannot be asserted here without consulting the underlying ALU2 datasets or detailed customs records [5] [8].