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Fact check: What percentage of global coffee exports does Brazil currently control?
Executive Summary
Brazil is widely reported as the world’s dominant coffee supplier, but none of the provided recent sources state an exact, single percentage for Brazil’s share of global coffee exports; available data offer proximate measures — notably about 40% of the global Arabica supply and a ~32% share of U.S. coffee imports — while monthly export volumes in 2025 show volatility that complicates a fixed global-export percentage calculation [1] [2] [3]. The sources therefore support the conclusion that Brazil controls a substantial plurality of coffee trade but do not provide a definitive percent-of-global-exports figure.
1. Why reporters ask “What percent?” and why sources fall short of a single number
News and industry pieces repeatedly use terms like “dominant” and quantify Brazil’s role with different denominators — Arabica supply, U.S. import share, or monthly shipment volumes — which produces inconsistent measures across contexts. One source states Brazil supplies 40% of the world’s Arabica production, a crop-specific metric that does not translate one-for-one into global export share because it excludes Robusta and domestic consumption [1]. Other items quantify market share in destination markets, such as a reported 32% share of the U.S. market, which reflects trade flows to a single importing country rather than Brazil’s slice of global exports [2].
2. Recent export volumes show scale but not global share
Brazil’s monthly export data provide a clear sense of scale: 3.144 million 60‑kg bags exported in August 2025, a figure that signals large absolute volumes but is insufficient to compute a global share without a contemporaneous global export total [3]. The August 2025 figure also shows a 17.5% year‑on‑year decline, indicating that Brazil’s contribution to annual global exports can shift materially month to month, making any static percentage potentially misleading unless tied to a specific period and global baseline [3]. This volatility underscores why sources present multiple metrics rather than a single percent.
3. Destination-specific market shares distort the global picture
Counting Brazil as controlling a percentage of global exports can be conflated with country‑level import shares, such as the U.S. importing 301,000 bags from Brazil in August 2025 and U.S. buyers historically taking a large slice of Brazilian shipments [4]. That 32% U.S. market figure is a destination-weighted statistic and is useful to understand trade concentration toward particular buyers, but it is not equivalent to Brazil’s share of world exports. When analysts say “Brazil controls X%,” they sometimes mean “of the U.S. market” or “of Arabica supply,” leading to misinterpretation if the denominator is not explicitly stated [2] [1].
4. Policy actions and tariffs complicate real-time export shares
Political developments — notably proposed or enacted tariffs and legislative responses — are affecting trade flows and therefore Brazil’s practical influence on global exports. Coverage notes U.S. tariff proposals and bipartisan moves in Congress to exempt coffee, which could redirect shipments away from or back toward the U.S. depending on outcomes [5] [6]. These policy shifts create short‑term reallocation risks, meaning a measured global‑export percentage for Brazil can change quickly as exporters reroute beans to Europe and Asia if the U.S. market becomes less attractive [6].
5. Source perspectives and possible agendas to watch
Industry groups and trade councils emphasize Brazil’s export strength and can frame data to support trade positions, as seen in reporting from a Brazilian exporters council responding to tariffs [2]. Market commentary focused on prices and inventories highlights supply tightness and Brazil’s role in Arabica availability [7]. These differing emphases reflect potential agendas: exporters defending market access, commodity analysts warning of supply effects, and importers lobbying for tariff relief. The varied framing explains why precise global‑export percentages are rarely published without methodological caveats [2] [7].
6. Bottom line: best available quantified statements and the remaining gap
From the available material, the clearest quantitative statements are that Brazil supplies roughly 40% of global Arabica and holds a ~32% share of the U.S. market, while monthly export volumes ran at millions of 60‑kg bags in 2025 but fluctuated significantly year‑on‑year [1] [2] [3]. None of the provided sources, however, give a single authoritative percentage of total global coffee exports (all grades) currently controlled by Brazil. To produce that exact figure would require a matched global export total for the same reporting period and methodology, which the supplied sources do not provide.