Business

1. A measurable rebound in sentiment—but it’s survey-driven

Multiple industry and banking surveys report stronger small-business and corporate confidence heading into 2026: Comerica’s Small Business Pulse found about 80% of small-business owners “somewhat or very confident” about the next 12 months and 79% expecting revenue growth, with an average projected increase of 7.9% ^[1], while JPMorgan’s corporate- and small-business-focused polling shows roughly 71–74% of respondents optimistic about their own company outlook for 2026 ^{[2] [3]}. Those are real datapoints indicating sentiment improvement, but they come from proprietary pulses and bank-sponsored studies that can sample particular slices of the economy (e.g., mid-market clients or bank customers), so the picture can be rosier in the data than in the economy at large ^{[2] [4]}.

2. Why optimism is rising: costs, investments and technology bets

Respondents say cost pressures have eased and uncertainty has diminished, prompting renewed capital spending and hiring intentions, and many firms are explicitly reallocating resources into technology and marketing—with JPMorgan reporting 47% building cash reserves, 36% renegotiating supplier terms and widespread plans to increase AI and tech investment, as 59% view AI as essential within three years ^{[2] [3]}. University of Cincinnati coverage tracks that shift from experimentation to execution on AI and flags cybersecurity and workforce training as emerging priorities—evidence that technology is shaping strategy, not just rhetoric ^[5].

3. Sector and size divides: optimism is not universal

Optimism skews by sector and firm type: technology and construction firms show higher buoyancy while sole proprietors and retail owners are noticeably more cautious, and middle-market firms report different confidence levels than very small businesses ^{[1] [4]}. The auto industry, for instance, talks about resilience but also persistent affordability and demand issues, showing how capital intensity and consumer sensitivity create divergent risk profiles across industries ^[6]. Those divides mean headline “business optimism” numbers mask uneven recovery and concentrated vulnerabilities ^{[6] [1]}.

4. Political risks, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty remain real threats

Even amid bullishness, respondents still list inflation, tariffs and evolving regulations as top concerns—Comerica notes expectations that tariff impacts will persist or worsen, and more broadly executives flagged policy and global headwinds as reasons sentiment wavered through 2025 ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Media coverage of market volatility and corporate shocks—such as major earnings misses or trade tensions—underscores how quickly sentiment can reverse when policy or supply-chain conditions shift ^{[7] [8]}.

5. How to read these findings: cautious optimism, not a clean bill of health

Taken together, the reporting supports a narrative of cautious optimism: businesses are planning growth and investing in productivity while simultaneously shoring up liquidity and supply terms to weather shocks ^{[2] [4]}. The primary limitation of the available reporting is its heavy reliance on survey-based measures published by banks and interest-aligned outlets, which can highlight forward-looking intent rather than realized outcomes; independent hard data on hires, revenue growth and bankruptcies would be needed to confirm the surveys’ predictions ^{[2] [3]}.

Conclusion: an opportunistic, defensive posture defines 2026 plans

The balance of evidence in these business reports points to a year where many U.S. businesses plan to expand and modernize—particularly through AI and operational investments—while hedging against policy, tariff and demand risks by building cash cushions and tightening supplier terms; that posture should be read as pragmatic preparation rather than unequivocal recovery, especially given sectoral disparities and the survey-based nature of much of the positive data ^{[2] [5] [1]}.