Canada aluminium exports
Executive summary
Canada exported about US$12.37 billion worth of aluminum in 2024, with roughly US$11.22–11.49 billion of that flowing to the United States, making the U.S. by far Canada’s dominant market (TradingEconomics / UN COMTRADE and U.S. import series) [1] [2] [3]. Recent 2025 reporting shows that U.S. tariffs prompted a sharp but partial diversion of Canadian shipments to Europe before some volumes began returning as U.S. prices rose (Reuters, Mining.com, ShippingMatters) [4] [5] [6].
1. Canada’s aluminium trade: big numbers, big dependence
Canada’s aluminium exports were reported at US$12.37 billion for 2024, while imports of aluminium into Canada were about US$5.38 billion the same year, underlining Canada’s role as a net exporter of aluminium [1] [7]. Multiple sources show the U.S. takes the lion’s share: TradingEconomics/COMTRADE puts exports to the United States at roughly US$11.22 billion in 2024 and U.S. import records list US$11.49 billion from Canada—figures consistent with other agency breakdowns that place more than half to well over two‑thirds of U.S. aluminium sourcing from Canada [2] [3].
2. Geography and capacity: Quebec is the backbone
Quebec supplies the bulk of Canada’s aluminium production, with sprawling smelters and processing plants concentrated there; industry reporting and provincial breakdowns repeatedly identify Quebec as the province responsible for most exports [8] [9]. Independent coverage also notes major global firms operating in Quebec and that roughly 90% of Canada’s aluminium‑making capacity is located in that province, shaping where shipments originate and how quickly producers can re‑route cargo when markets shift [9].
3. Tariffs, diversion and short‑term swings in 2025
When the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2025, Canadian producers initially diverted shipments to Europe and other markets; reporting documents a drop in early‑2025 exports followed by a rebound as U.S. domestic prices and premiums rose under tariff pressure [6] [4] [5]. Data points reported by Reuters and other outlets show deliveries to Europe jumped and deliveries to the U.S. fell sharply in some months — for example, Canadian deliveries to Europe rose 94% year‑to‑date in one report while U.S. deliveries were down from earlier months before recovering [5] [4].
4. Market mechanics: prices pull flows back toward the U.S.
Physical market economics pushed some Canadian supply back toward the United States later in 2025 as U.S. Midwest premiums and spot prices rose—making shipments profitable even with tariffs, industry sources told reporters [6] [5]. Reuters cited deliveries that fell dramatically earlier in the year (e.g., monthly tonnage variances) and later increases as U.S. prices reflected tariffs; ShippingMatters highlighted mid‑2025 rebounds amid record premiums [5] [6].
5. Competing data and interpretive gaps
Different datasets give slightly different totals: TradingEconomics/COMTRADE shows US$12.37B total exports in 2024 and US$11.22B to the U.S. [1] [2], while some institutional summaries (e.g., Export Development Canada reporting cited by EDC commentary) offered a higher aggregated number for “aluminum including processing” at US$14.1B to the U.S. in 2024, indicating definitional or coverage differences between raw aluminium, processed products and broader industry categories [10]. Available sources do not mention a single reconciled series that explains every discrepancy across providers; users should expect methodological divergence between COMTRADE, national statistics, and industry tallies [1] [10].
6. Who benefits and who is squeezed: politics and industry response
Industry leaders and trade bodies framed the tariff episode as forcing costly re‑routing and exposing supply‑chain risk; they also emphasized Europe as a temporary buffer while the U.S. market adjusted [11] [9]. Government pages indicate Ottawa is monitoring and updating import controls and information collection on aluminium (country of smelt and cast data), signaling bureaucratic steps to improve traceability and policy tools [12]. Reporting suggests producers and traders adapted quickly, but firms with long U.S. supply contracts or integrated manufacturing chains felt pressure from price dislocations and sudden demand shifts [11] [6].
7. Bottom line and what to watch next
The essential story: Canada remains a major aluminium exporter with heavy U.S. dependence; tariffs in 2025 produced measurable diversion and volatility but market price moves have drawn some supply back to U.S. buyers [1] [4] [5]. Watch three indicators for the near term: monthly export tonnages by destination (COMTRADE / Trade Data Monitor cited in reporting), spot premiums in U.S. physical markets, and Canadian government releases on import/export controls or smelt‑and‑cast traceability—all cited in current reporting [12] [5] [4].