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What is the current market share of Canadian beef in the USA?
Executive summary
Available reporting does not give a single, definitive current percentage called “Canadian beef market share in the USA,” but several sources offer useful proxies: Canada was the largest supplier to the U.S. by export value in 2023 (US$4.86 billion, about 34.7% of the U.S. import market by value) and Canadian + Mexican beef/cattle could together account for as much as 14% of beef consumed in the U.S. according to one market study [1] [2]. Other analyses describe Canada as a major supplier whose share fluctuates with herd size, tariffs, and short‑term trade shifts [3] [4].
1. What the available numbers actually say — two different “shares”
There are two related but different metrics in the sources: share of U.S. imports by value and share of U.S. beef consumption attributable to Canadian (and Mexican) imports. Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada’s market analysis reports that in 2023 Canada was the largest supplier to the U.S. by export value (US$4,859.8 million), representing 34.7% of the U.S. market by value among foreign suppliers [1]. Separately, a market overview produced for U.S. buyers notes that Canadian and Mexican beef and cattle could account for as much as 14% of the beef consumed in the U.S. — a consumption‑share framing, not an import‑value metric [2].
2. Why those two figures differ — value vs. volume and scope
Value‑based shares (34.7%) reflect the dollar worth of Canadian shipments to the U.S. and can be lifted by shipments of higher‑value cuts or price spikes; volume‑or consumption‑shares (the “up to 14%” figure) compare imported tonnages to total U.S. beef consumption and therefore tend to be smaller. The 34.7% figure is about Canada’s role among foreign suppliers by value, not Canada’s share of all beef eaten in the U.S. [1] [2].
3. Recent trends that change market share quickly
Multiple reports say Canada’s share is sensitive to short‑term trade dynamics. Canada’s cattle herd has contracted and inventories are at multi‑decade lows, which affects export capacity and therefore U.S. supply contribution [3] [4]. Trade frictions and tariff threats have also played a role in 2024–2025 reporting; Beef Web’s Q1 2025 analysis mentions tightening supplies and trade tensions that influence flows to the U.S. [4]. The USDA/ERS notes 2025 import volumes rose and forecasts for imports were adjusted up, showing how year‑to‑year swings change import shares [5].
4. Where the “up to 14%” number comes from and its limits
The 14% estimate appears in a market report that combines Canadian and Mexican supply into a single share of U.S. beef consumption — so it does not isolate Canada alone and uses an upper‑bound phrasing (“could account for as much as 14%”), implying scenario dependence [2]. That estimate is not a hard, current percentage for Canada alone; instead it frames how important combined cross‑border supplies can be to U.S. consumption in certain years or under certain price/production conditions [2].
5. Data gaps and what the sources do NOT provide
None of the provided sources gives one clear, single‑number “current market share of Canadian beef in the USA” in terms of percentage of all U.S. beef consumption for a single recent month or quarter that isolates Canada alone. Available reporting supplies a) Canada’s share of U.S. imports by value in 2023 (34.7% among foreign suppliers) and b) a combined Canada+Mexico upper estimate of share of U.S. consumption (~14%), but not a contemporaneous Canada‑only consumption share [1] [2]. If you need an exact current percentage (by weight or by consumption share), those precise figures are not in the documents provided.
6. How to interpret these numbers for policy, trade or business decisions
If you are assessing exposure of U.S. beef supply to Canada: use the consumption‑oriented metric (the 14% combined figure is a useful upper bound for cross‑border dependence, but it aggregates Mexico) and be cautious because herd sizes and trade policy can shift it quickly [2] [3]. If you are evaluating market position and pricing influence: Canada’s 2023 role as the top foreign supplier by value (US$4.86 billion; 34.7% share of import value) indicates strong economic importance to U.S. supply chains even as volumes and herd dynamics change [1].
7. Competing perspectives and implicit agendas in the sources
Government/industry analyses emphasize Canada’s export importance and often stress traceability, food safety, and the economic value of exports [1] [3]. Market consultancies and trade reports frame figures in ways useful to buyers/sellers — for example, the 14% framing groups Canada with Mexico and is presented as a scenario for U.S. market dependence, which can underscore negotiated tariff leverage or marketing messages [2]. Watch for differences in whether a source reports value vs. volume and whether it includes Mexico in the totals.
If you want a single current percentage by weight or by share of U.S. consumption for Canada alone, the provided sources do not supply that exact figure; I can search for USDA trade/Customs monthly import tonnage data or Statistics Canada export‑to‑U.S. tonnage to construct it if you wish.