Does USA export milk to Canada
Executive summary
Yes — the United States does export dairy products, including milk-derived goods, to Canada; U.S. dairy exports to Canada rose from about C$525 million in 2021 to C$877 million in 2024 (a 67% increase) and U.S. exports of dairy to Canada were reported as roughly $691.5 million in real terms in 2021 by USDA-ERS [1] [2]. Trade is shaped by USMCA tariff-rate quotas and very high over-quota tariffs that rarely apply because fill rates remain low (average TRQ fill rates near 21–27% in recent reporting) [3] [4].
1. Direct answer: Yes — and what “milk” usually means in the data
U.S. exporters sell a range of dairy products into Canada — cheese, butter, whey, skim milk powder and other milk-derived products — rather than simply shipping raw bottled fluid milk across the border in large volumes; statistics show U.S. dairy exports to Canada grew from C$525 million in 2021 to C$877 million in 2024 [1]. USDA Economic Research Service data also documents rising U.S. dairy export values to Canada over the 2010–2021 period [2].
2. The legal framework that governs those exports
Trade in dairy between the two countries is governed by USMCA (CUSMA) and a system of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). Under that system, a fixed quota volume can enter Canada at low or zero duty, while volumes above the quota face extremely high over-quota tariffs — e.g., rates cited as roughly 241% for liquid milk and up to 298% for butter — though those punitive rates apply only if shipments exceed the TRQs [3] [5].
3. Why exports have increased despite high over‑quota tariffs
Researchers and trade analysts say USMCA and related dispute rulings have expanded the practical market access that U.S. suppliers enjoy, helping push up exports of cheese, butter, whey and other products — a 67% value rise to C$877 million in 2024 is frequently cited [1] [6]. USDA and industry reporting note that specific quota access, re-export programs for processed foods, and price or production advantages (e.g., U.S. scale and efficiency) are drivers [7] [8].
4. The misused headline numbers and the policy dispute
Political rhetoric often cites the 241–298% tariff figures as proof Canada “blocks” U.S. milk. That’s misleading: those are over‑quota tariffs that would only be triggered if U.S. shipments exceed the TRQ. Empirical fill-rate data show the TRQs are far from filled on average (IDFA calculations and fact checks show calendar‑year TRQ fill rates around the mid‑20% range) [3]. Still, U.S. industry groups argue Canada’s quota administration and allocation methods make it hard to use the available quota, a point that has driven USMCA grievances and arbitration [9] [4].
5. What “milk” categories matter — and where trade flows concentrate
Trade flows are product-specific: butter and butterfat, cheese, whey and milk powders are the big categories moving across the border. U.S. butter exports to Canada, for example, saw meaningful monthly gains in early 2025 (butter up 19% to Canada in a cited month) [10]. Raw fluid milk is less prominent in cross‑border trade due to supply‑management protections and tendered quotas in Canada [8] [5].
6. Numbers and scale: important context
Dairy is a small share of total U.S.–Canada trade but significant for sector stakeholders: USTR values U.S. exports to Canada at hundreds of billions overall, with dairy roughly $1 billion of that in 2024 (about 0.1% of total U.S. exports), while USDA‑ERS shows rising real export values to Canada over the last decade [9] [2]. TradingEconomics/UN COMTRADE figures also record related merchandise flows [11] [12].
7. Competing perspectives and political stakes
U.S. dairy groups and some lawmakers press for tougher enforcement of USMCA commitments, arguing Canadian allocation practices block quota use and shield domestic producers [4] [9]. Canadian authorities and dairy stakeholders defend supply management as necessary to preserve domestic production and note the high over‑quota tariffs are protective by design [8] [1]. Independent scholars show USMCA produced meaningful gains for U.S. exporters while also noting the tariff architecture remains in place [6] [5].
8. Limitations and what sources do not say
Available sources document product-level exports, TRQs and political disputes, but they do not provide line‑by‑line, up‑to‑the‑day shipment manifests of “raw bottled milk” versus processed dairy sold in Canada; therefore exact current volumes of any single HS6 category on today’s date are not available in these materials [13] [11]. Also, sources show differing units and currencies (CAD, USD, metric tons), so comparisons require care [1] [2].
Bottom line: U.S. dairy — including milk-derived products like cheese, butter and powders — is exported to Canada and has grown sharply in recent years, but trade remains tightly regulated by TRQs and contested politically and legally by industry and governments on both sides [1] [3] [6].