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Crude oil and gas prices
Executive summary
Crude oil benchmarks are trading in the high-$50s to low-$60s per barrel as of November 21, 2025: TradingEconomics reports a CFD-based U.S. crude (WTI-like) price at $57.77/bbl (down 2.09% that day) and Brent at $62.35/bbl (down 1.63%) [1] [2]. Major forecasters see weaker oil into 2026 — the U.S. EIA projects Brent averaging $54/b in 1Q26 and $55/b for the year as rising global inventories put downward pressure on prices [3].
1. Price snapshot: what the numbers say right now
Market-data trackers show recent weakness: a U.S.-style crude CFD at $57.77 on Nov. 21, 2025, and Brent at $62.35, both down from earlier peaks and roughly 17–19% below year-ago levels according to TradingEconomics’ snapshots [1] [2]. Daily reporting from Forbes and Reuters gives comparable marks: WTI futures were reported at $59.90 on Nov. 20 (Forbes) and Brent settled at $63.38 that same day in Reuters coverage, illustrating small daily swings between sources and time stamps [4] [5].
2. Forecasters say inventories will push prices lower next year
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) explicitly forecasts rising global oil inventories through 2026 and projects Brent will fall to an average of $54/b in 1Q26 and $55/b for all of 2026 — a clear downward signal from a major official forecaster [3]. The STEO also links lower crude to lower retail fuel expectations, forecasting U.S. gasoline/diesel price declines and noting gasoline around $3.70/gal in 2025, driven in part by lower crude [6].
3. Why analysts and agencies expect oversupply
Both the IEA and EIA point to supply-side factors and inventory builds. The IEA’s November report notes a rebound in crude supply, heavy loadings from the Americas and the Middle East, and inventories that add to a market increasingly tilted toward oversupply — North Sea dated prices averaged about $64.64 in October and were trading near $62 at writing, consistent with the broader downtrend in prices [7]. The EIA’s STEO similarly cites rising global inventories as the primary driver of downward pressure [3].
4. Near-term market movers and countervailing risks
News-driven moves can upend the outlook: Reuters reported that oil fell when geopolitical developments around Ukraine and U.S. diplomacy eased some supply-concern premiums, and that weekly U.S. crude inventory changes remain a direct influence on prices [5]. Conversely, OPEC+ decisions can support prices — Reuters documented market calm after OPEC+ paused planned output hikes for Q1 2026, which analysts such as Morgan Stanley used to raise near-term Brent forecasts [8]. The IEA also warns that multiple risks — tariffs, sanctions on Russia, a cold winter — could abruptly change balances [7].
5. What consumers may see at the pump
Retail impacts are already visible in national averages: AAA reported a U.S. regular gasoline national average of about $3.08/gal on Nov. 6, 2025, and noted that refinery outages or maintenance (e.g., in California) can cause local price spikes even if crude is soft overall [9]. The EIA’s STEO connects lower crude forecasts to expectations for cheaper gasoline and diesel in U.S. markets [6].
6. Divergent market readings and how to read them
Different data providers give slightly different spot numbers because of timing, contract type, and the benchmarks they track: TradingEconomics’ CFD quotes, Barchart or futures screens, and reporter snapshots (Forbes, Reuters) will not match tick-for-tick; each source’s figure reflects a snapshot in time and market instrument [1] [4] [10] [5]. Analysts’ models diverge too: the EIA’s baseline is explicitly inventory-driven and relatively bearish for 2026 [3], while bank strategists may lift near-term targets in response to OPEC+ policy or sanctions developments [8].
7. Bottom line for readers and pitfalls to watch
Current reporting points to a market that is softer than earlier in 2025, with Brent around $62 and U.S. crude in the high-$50s [1] [2] [4]. Major forecasters expect continued downward pressure through 2026 driven by rising inventories [3], but headline risk — geopolitics, OPEC+ moves, or unanticipated seasonal demand — can rapidly reverse short-term trends [7] [8]. Readers should treat single-day price quotes as transitory and rely on the EIA/IEA assessments for structural context while monitoring geopolitical headlines reported by outlets such as Reuters for immediate market shocks [3] [7] [5].