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How did egg wholesale and farmgate prices change in 2025 under President Donald Trump?
Executive Summary
President Donald Trump was not in office in 2025, so any claim that egg wholesale and farmgate prices changed "under President Donald Trump" in 2025 is factually incorrect; price movements in 2025 were driven by market forces, chiefly Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and shifting inventories, with wholesale and farmgate prices showing sharp swings—both large increases early in the year and notable declines later—depending on the month and dataset cited [1] [2] [3]. Analysts and government reports document both sizable year‑over‑year increases in early 2025 and substantial month‑to‑month declines by mid‑ to late‑2025, reflecting supply shocks followed by rapid supply recovery and normalization [1] [2] [4].
1. Why the timing matters: The presidency claim collapses under basic chronology
The central factual error in the original statement is temporal: Donald Trump was not president in 2025, so attributing 2025 price changes to his presidency misstates governance context and responsibility for agricultural outcomes. Multiple analyses explicitly note that the observed 2025 price patterns occurred under the incumbent administration at the time and that policy attribution is inappropriate without evidence tying specific policy actions to price movements [2] [5] [4]. Reports from the USDA and ERS frame 2025 price changes around HPAI impacts, inventory rebuilds, and seasonal demand rather than presidential interventions, making it essential to separate market drivers from political rhetoric when assessing causation [1] [3].
2. The narrative of rising prices in early 2025: Disease and depopulation drove wholesale spikes
Early 2025 saw substantial upward pressure on egg prices driven by HPAI outbreaks that removed millions of laying hens from the supply chain. USDA forecasts and ERS analysis documented sharp year‑over‑year increases and forecasts—USDA estimated a 41.1% rise for 2025 relative to 2024 and reported millions of layers depopulated, which reduced supply and pushed prices higher in January and the first quarter [1] [5]. Market trackers and commodity reports recorded wholesale New York and national FOB prices exceeding typical ranges as inventories tightened, and industry commentary linked the initial price surges directly to the biosecurity shock rather than discrete policy changes [5] [6].
3. The countervailing swing: Inventory rebuilds and wholesale collapses mid‑to‑late 2025
After the early shock, wholesale prices weakened sharply as inventories rebounded, producing dramatic month‑to‑month declines in some metrics. USDA and market reports show wholesale New York prices falling from highs to much lower levels by late summer and autumn, with some sources reporting declines of the order of tens to even 86% from March peaks to October lows depending on the specific wholesale series used [2] [3]. Weekly and monthly inventory data show increases in cases and restored flock numbers that explain this normalization; USDA forecasts were adjusted downward as supply recovered, signaling that the mid‑year tightening was at least partially transitory [2] [4].
4. Farmgate (producer) prices moved but lagged and differed from retail/wholesale patterns
Producer or farmgate prices followed a related but not identical trajectory: farm‑level egg prices experienced steep swings, with some reports indicating a large percentage fall from July to August yet forecasting an overall annual increase for producers in 2025 due to earlier depopulation impacts [4]. The Midwest producer price examples in USDA market overviews showed increases into certain months and declines in others; these regional farmgate levels are influenced by contract terms and timing of depopulation and repopulation, meaning farmgate movements did not always mirror retail or wholesale spot prices day‑to‑day [7] [4]. Analysts caution that agricultural price series often diverge across marketing channels during disruptions.
5. What claims about "huge price drops" or political credit get wrong: data nuance and selective clipping
Claims that egg prices fell by 90%+ or that a politician caused such shifts misrepresent the record: wholesale series do show large percentage swings from specific peaks to troughs, but those peaks were often abnormal and tied to HPAI disruptions, and the magnitude varies by series and timing [8] [3]. Public analyses that attacked or lauded a political figure for 2025 price changes overlooked the two critical facts that (a) the president named was not in office in 2025 and (b) the market movements are primarily explained by HPAI‑related supply shocks and subsequent inventory recovery, not discrete executive actions documented in the cited reports [8] [1]. Any assessment must reference the particular price series, dates, and the disease timeline to avoid misleading headline comparisons [2] [4].