What factors drove egg price spikes in 2022 and have they normalized since?
Executive summary
The sharp egg-price spike beginning in 2022 was driven principally by an unprecedented outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that killed tens of millions of laying hens, shrinking supply, while lingering pandemic-era supply-chain strains, higher input costs and seasonal demand amplified the shock [1] [2] [3]. Since then prices have at times fallen back toward pre‑spike levels—notably by mid‑2023 in some datasets—but volatility has persisted as recurring HPAI losses, uneven regional impacts, and debates about market structure and pricing behavior have kept retail and wholesale prices elevated intermittently into 2024–25 [4] [5] [6].
1. HPAI: the proximate supply shock that hatched the crisis
The single largest proximate cause of the 2022 surge was the H5N1 HPAI outbreak that began in early 2022 and disproportionately affected egg‑laying flocks, leading to the depopulation of millions of hens and removing a substantial share of productive capacity from the market, with industry tallies citing losses on the order of tens of millions to well over 100 million affected birds since 2022 [1] [7] [2]. USDA and industry summaries link reduced layer inventories and lower table‑egg output directly to higher farm and retail egg prices because fewer eggs were available for sale while consumer demand remained steady [1] [2].
2. Inflation, input costs and pandemic hangover: compounding the shock
The HPAI supply hit arrived on top of broader food‑price inflation and high production costs that had already been ramping since 2020; energy, feed inputs and labor cost spikes—plus residual COVID‑era supply‑chain frictions—raised the cost base for producers and distributors and amplified retail price moves [2] [3] [1]. Analysts also point to feed and natural gas price sensitivity in producer cost models, meaning that when those costs rise they transmit non‑trivially into egg prices [8].
3. Seasonal and demand dynamics: why prices overshot at holidays
Seasonal demand—especially around holidays such as Easter and the winter holiday baking season—intensified shortages and pushed spot prices sharply upward during late 2022 and early 2023, a pattern reinforced by regular industry cycles in lay rates and retention decisions by producers reacting to market signals [3] [9] [10]. Market observers note that when retail demand spikes against a constrained supply it produces outsized headline price movements even if the underlying annual production change is smaller [9].
4. Disagreement over causes beyond biology: profiteering and market structure claims
Not all explanations center solely on biology and input costs; advocacy and investigative pieces have argued that concentrated market structures and alleged opportunistic pricing by large producers and distributors amplified the spike, pointing to instances where national prices moved sharply even in regions with milder supply impacts [11] [12]. Government and independent fact checks and many economists counter that the scale and targeting of HPAI losses largely explain the dynamics, but they also acknowledge that regional distortions and pricing strategies may have exacerbated consumer pain [13] [12].
5. Have prices normalized? — partial, uneven recovery with lingering volatility
Data and industry dashboards indicate a mixed picture: several analyses show retail and wholesale egg prices peaking in early 2023 and returning to more normal ranges by mid‑2023 in aggregate measures, suggesting a partial normalization after the initial shock [4]. Yet subsequent rounds of HPAI losses, regional outbreaks and seasonal demand produced renewed upward pressure in late 2024 and 2025, and mainstream reporting and USDA summaries through early 2025 document ongoing volatility and periods of record or near‑record prices that kept costs elevated for many consumers [5] [6] [1]. In short, the acute 2022 supply shock largely explains the spike and a meaningful recovery occurred in 2023, but normalization has been neither complete nor stable because the biological risk and market responses have persisted.