Grocery prices from 2023 to 2025
Executive summary
Grocery (food-at-home) prices jumped sharply in 2022, then slowed: food prices rose 11.4% in 2022, 5.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, and USDA/ERS forecast food-at-home to increase about 3.3% in 2025 (ERS) while BLS data through 2025 shows year‑over‑year food increases around 3.1%–3.2% by late‑summer 2025 (ERS; BLS) [1] [2] [3]. From 2020–2024 the all‑food CPI rose 23.6%, much faster than typical pre‑pandemic years [4].
1. What actually happened: a clear two‑stage surge then slowdown
Food prices exploded in 2022 — the largest jump since the late 1970s — driven by pandemic disruptions, energy costs, the Russia‑Ukraine war and outbreaks such as HPAI that hit eggs and poultry; that year’s surge left the all‑food CPI much higher and set the baseline for slower growth afterward [4] [2]. After 2022’s 11.4% spike, inflation moderated: ERS reports 5.8% growth in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024 [1]. That pattern means 2023–24 were better than 2022 but still left consumers paying far more than in 2019–20 [4].
2. Groceries vs. restaurants: different stories under the same headline
Prices for food purchased at home (groceries) and food away from home (restaurants) diverged. Groceries’ year‑to‑year increases flattened in 2023–24 while restaurant menu prices remained elevated and continued growing through 2024; ERS and industry trackers show restaurant inflation outpacing grocery inflation in much of this period [1] [5]. Forecasts and trackers in 2025 show food‑away‑from‑home still posting above‑average growth even as some grocery categories stabilize [6] [5].
3. 2024–25: moderation, then mixed signals in 2025
ERS data shows average food‑at‑home prices rose just 1.2% in 2024 but were forecast to rise faster in 2025 — ERS’s February 2025 outlook put food‑at‑home at +3.3% for 2025 and below the 2023 rate yet above 2024 [7] [6]. BLS releases in 2025 reported the overall food index up roughly 3.1% year‑over‑year by September 2025, with groceries (food at home) and food away from home each contributing to the uptick depending on the month [3] [2]. Some private trackers and news outlets using point‑of‑sale data also recorded continued monthly volatility in 2025 for specific staples such as eggs, meat and dairy [8] [9].
4. Why prices rose — and why they didn’t fall faster
Multiple drivers are documented: commodity shocks (war impacts on grains and fertilizer), animal disease outbreaks (avian flu affecting eggs/poultry), higher energy and transportation costs, and elevated wages and operating costs in food manufacturing and retail [4] [2] [10]. USDA and Fed‑affiliated analysis finds operating costs (wages, wholesale prices, electricity) rose markedly 2019–2023, which limited how fast retail prices could fall [10]. The U.S. Government Accountability Office and others also note supply‑chain disruptions were critical in 2022’s jump and continued to influence 2023 outcomes [11].
5. Which items and places hurt most — uneven impacts
Inflation was not uniform: some categories (eggs, certain proteins, packaged goods and pet/baby food in some reports) saw outsized price moves while produce and other items sometimes fell in specific months [2] [12] [13]. Geographic differences matter: composite grocery indices show states like Hawaii, Vermont and Alaska often have grocery costs well above the national average due to transportation and local factors [14]. Datasembly‑based trackers and newsroom trackers indicate households still pay substantially more than pre‑pandemic for many staples [9] [8].
6. Policy and political context: competing explanations and incentives
Analyses and news coverage present competing framings. Some sources emphasize supply‑side shocks and global events (war, disease, energy) as main causes [4] [11]. Others highlight domestic factors — higher wages, retail margins and corporate pricing decisions — noting grocery margins rose modestly even as costs increased [10]. Political actors have incentives to pin blame on tariffs, immigration policies, or corporate practices; reporting shows these positions appear in 2024–25 coverage but the data point to multiple interacting causes [15] [10].
7. What to watch next: forecasts, staples and policy moves
ERS and other forecasters expected grocery inflation to ease relative to 2022 but to remain elevated vs. 2019 levels; ERS’s 2025 forecast for food‑at‑home was ~3.3% and BLS readings through 2025 show ~3.1% food inflation year‑over‑year by September [6] [3]. Watch staple categories (eggs, beef, poultry), energy/freight costs, and any trade or tariff decisions—each can quickly change retail prices and consumer stress [2] [13].
Limitations: available sources do not provide a single continuous monthly table from 2023–2025 in this packet; assertions above are drawn from ERS, BLS and reporting that together describe the broad trends and key numbers cited [1] [3] [6].