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Are grocery store turkey promotions and discounts better this year than last year?
Executive summary
Retailers are advertising and running deeper turkey discounts in 2025 than in 2024, and multiple industry trackers report the overall cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal fell about 5% year‑over‑year largely because of lower retail turkey prices (AFBF: $55.18, down 5%) [1] [2]. At the same time wholesale turkey costs and some side‑dish prices rose sharply, creating a gap between what producers face and what shoppers see in stores (Purdue: wholesale up 75%; AFBF: retail turkey down >16%) [3] [1].
1. Retailers are cutting turkey prices to draw shoppers — and it shows
Big grocers and discounters have run prominent loss‑leader turkey promotions this season, including sub‑$1 per‑pound offers and bundled “meal baskets” priced well below 2024 equivalents; Reuters notes Butterball at 97¢/lb for one retailer and Walmart promoted a much cheaper meal basket this year [4] [5]. The American Farm Bureau Federation and CNBC both point to steep retail discounts that pushed the average classic Thanksgiving dinner down to $55.18 for 10 people — about a 5% decline from 2024 — driven chiefly by retailers selling turkeys below typical seasonal levels [1] [6].
2. Wholesale and production pressures tell a different story
Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability reports far higher wholesale turkey prices — a jump as large as 75% since October 2024, with wholesale prices cited near $1.71/lb in October — reflecting supply shocks from avian influenza and a smaller flock [3]. That wholesale spike contrasts sharply with the retail discounts consumers are seeing, indicating retailers are absorbing margin pressure or using turkeys as deliberate loss leaders to attract traffic [3] [7].
3. “Cheaper” dinners can mask smaller portions or substituted items
Some of the advertised savings stem from changes in basket composition rather than pure price cuts. Fact‑checking of retailer meal bundles shows versions in 2025 sometimes substitute different brands, smaller or fewer items (e.g., a 13.5‑lb turkey vs. a 10–16‑lb promise in 2024) or switch from national brands to private labels — moves that lower advertised prices without necessarily matching last year’s quantity/quality mix [8]. Reuters and AP note grocers swapped items or brands in their meal packs to reach lower per‑person costs [4] [8].
4. Why retailers can still offer big discounts despite wholesale spikes
Industry coverage and experts emphasize two common retail strategies: loss leaders and long‑term purchasing contracts. Retailers often sell commodity whole turkeys at or below cost near the holiday to pull customers into stores, counting on sales of higher‑margin items once shoppers are there [7]. Separately, larger chains may lock in prices with suppliers well in advance, insulating some retail prices from near‑term wholesale volatility and enabling temporary promotional pricing [9] [7].
5. Not all sides of the meal fell — some increased substantially
While turkeys and wheat‑based items like rolls and stuffing were generally cheaper this year, several side items rose sharply: frozen peas, sweet potatoes and some fresh vegetable trays saw double‑digit increases, per the Farm Bureau and Reuters reporting [5]. That means shoppers chasing a lower turkey price can still face higher overall grocery bills depending on what they buy beyond the bird [5] [6].
6. What this means for shoppers deciding where to buy
If your primary goal is the lowest headline turkey price, 2025 offers better advertised bargains in many chains than 2024, but check package sizes, brand swaps and any purchase thresholds (some free‑turkey offers still require spending minimums) — The Krazy Coupon Lady and local reporting highlight typical rules like spending windows and minimum receipts that mirror past promotions [10]. For people concerned about supporting producers or long‑term price signals, the wholesale increases reported by Purdue suggest tighter supplies and higher producer costs that are not fully visible at the register [3].
7. Bottom line — both statements are true in context
It is accurate to say grocery store turkey promotions and discounts are, in many visible cases, better this year for consumers at the retail level, and that’s reflected in a lower average Thanksgiving dinner cost per the Farm Bureau [1] [2]. At the same time, wholesale turkey prices and production pressures rose sharply this year, so the consumer relief comes largely from retailer pricing strategy, substitutions in meal bundles, and pre‑negotiated contracts rather than an across‑the‑board drop in turkey costs at the farm level [3] [8].
Limitations: available sources do not mention a comprehensive national tally of every store’s promotion list for 2024 vs 2025, so conclusions rely on industry surveys, retailer examples and farm/wholesale analyses cited above [1] [3] [4].