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Which meat types (beef, pork, chicken) will see the biggest price changes from the plant shutdowns?
Executive summary
Plant shutdowns and related disruptions are most likely to push beef prices substantially higher, while pork and chicken face smaller but still meaningful upward pressure; USDA and industry forecasts show beef production down ~4% in 2025 and beef prices at or near record highs, whereas poultry production is larger and pork expansion is slow, implying less dramatic retail moves for those proteins [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not provide a single study that quantifies price changes from the current wave of shutdowns across all three meats in one model—reporting instead on sector-specific supply shocks, production forecasts, and past shutdown impacts (not found in current reporting).
1. Why beef stands out: tight herd, falling production, record prices
Beef is the clearest candidate for the largest price swings after processing disruptions because cattle inventories are at multi‑decade lows and U.S. beef production is projected to fall roughly 4% in 2025; industry analysts and USDA outlooks therefore expect beef to be the most price‑sensitive protein this cycle [3] [1]. Multiple outlets report historic retail and wholesale beef strength—farm-level cattle prices surged and retail beef and veal have posted consecutive monthly increases—so when processing capacity is removed or cut back those already‑tight supplies get rationed quickly and prices respond strongly [2] [4].
2. Pork: vulnerable but with more buffer than beef
Pork is exposed to processing interruptions (past plant shutdowns hit pork packing hard) and herd rebuilding has been slow, which can tighten supplies and raise prices, but USDA and industry reporting show pork production is expected to be more modestly impacted than beef in 2025 and price increases are forecast to be smaller than for beef [5] [2]. Historical analyses of shutdowns (e.g., COVID‑era) show pork slaughter declines were especially disruptive to producers and led to back‑up and culling risks—this implies pork prices can spike locally or in the short run after plant closures, yet the overall national pork outlook is less extreme than for beef [6] [7].
3. Chicken: largest processing footprint, so local disruptions not always national price shocks
The U.S. poultry sector has far more federally inspected plants and much greater overall volume than red meat, which gives it flexibility to absorb one or a few plant closures; USDA and trade reporting note broiler production is large and poultry prices in 2025 were forecast to rise only modestly compared with beef [8] [2]. That said, poultry closures can still cause short‑term local shortages and worker‑safety‑related slowdowns have historically raised prices in some markets; overall, sources suggest chicken is least likely of the three to see the largest sustained national price surge from plant shutdowns [9] [2].
4. What past shutdowns teach us: processing concentration matters
Research and reporting from the COVID period and USDA working papers show that when large, concentrated plants close (especially in pork and beef), slaughter and processing fall rapidly and producers face urgent animal management problems—this translated to both farmer losses and retail price volatility during 2020–21 [6] [7]. But analysts also stress the system can often "adjust when one or two plants close" because of the number of facilities in poultry versus the smaller number of beef/pork plants, which is why beef is more vulnerable to large national price moves from capacity losses [8].
5. Policy, trade and other forces can amplify or mute shocks
Non‑shutdown forces are already amplifying beef’s price path—tariffs, drought, herd rebuilding decisions, and strong demand are cited by multiple outlets as drivers pushing beef higher in 2025—so a processing shutdown layered on top of these trends can magnify beef price increases more than for pork or chicken [10] [11] [12]. Conversely, imports, seasonal carcass weights, and substitution (consumers shifting to cheaper proteins) are mechanisms that could temper price moves over time, but sources show these are unlikely to fully offset a sustained domestic beef supply shortfall [1] [13].
6. Conflicting views and limits of current reporting
Some economists cited in coverage argue individual plant closures may not move retail prices much because markets adjust or because packers may be losing money on beef operations—meaning shutdowns don’t automatically equal higher consumer prices in every instance [14]. At the same time, USDA forecasts and industry groups project sizable beef price increases. The sources do not provide a single, comprehensive model that isolates the incremental retail‑price effect of the current round of plant shutdowns across beef, pork and chicken, so precise percentage comparisons tied solely to shutdowns are not available (not found in current reporting; [4]5).
7. Practical takeaway for consumers and buyers
Expect beef to be the most volatile and likely to see the biggest sustained price increases if closures or capacity reductions persist, with pork at risk of localized spikes and chicken generally the most buffered but not immune to short‑term disruption; monitor USDA Food Price Outlook updates and industry shipment reports for the next concrete numbers [1] [2] [4].