How many car repoes in the united states in 2025?
Executive summary
Most industry summaries and national outlets conclude that roughly three million vehicles are expected to be repossessed in the United States in 2025, but that headline figure masks a tangled mix of data types — “repossession assignments” versus actual recoveries — and competing methodological assumptions that leave the exact count uncertain [1] [2].
1. What reporters are citing: the three‑million headline
Several mainstream reports and analysts have converged on a projection that 2025 could see about three million cars actually repossessed, a level comparable to the Great Recession, and that projection is widely repeated in outlets including CBS and regional affiliates [1] [3]; industry summaries likewise describe 2025 as “approaching record” repossession levels and warn the year could “crack 3 million” repossessions [4].
2. The messy reality behind the numbers: assignments vs. recoveries
Behind the three‑million headline sits the Recovery Database Network (RDN) measure of repossession assignments — the authorizations that lenders give to agencies to recover vehicles — which industry analysts report exceeded 7.5 million assignments in 2025, even as lower recovery ratios mean far fewer vehicles are actually taken from borrowers [2] [5]; some writeups thus project about 3 million actual repossessions based on typical recovery rates and seasonal concentration in the fourth quarter [2].
3. Conflicting estimates and earlier projections
Not all industry voices agree: CURepossession’s own commentary and earlier analyses offered more conservative scenarios and alternative back‑of‑envelope estimates (for example, a past CURepossession writeup suggested a 2025 figure near 1.8 million under certain stability assumptions) [6], while other outlets that re‑ran the RDN/CURepossession data emphasize the 7.5 million assignment total and project end‑of‑year assignments as high as 10.5 million — creating room for a wide range of possible actual repossession totals depending on assumed recovery rates [5] [7].
4. Why the projected surge — and why the numbers can mislead
Analysts point to rising delinquencies, higher vehicle prices and interest costs, and post‑pandemic loan vintages that are under stress as drivers of both authorizations and actual take‑backs: delinquencies across credit tiers rose in 2025 and subprime 60‑day delinquencies reached multi‑decade highs referenced by market commentators, which feeds higher assignment volumes even if logistics or recovery ratios temper final counts [5] [8]. At the same time, industry recovery ratios (the share of assignments that result in physical repossession) have fallen in recent years, meaning assignment counts overstate actual cars reclaimed unless one explicitly adjusts for that gap [2].
5. Bottom line: best current estimate and key caveats
Based on the consistent reporting across multiple outlets that rely on RDN data and CURepossession analysis, the most defensible headline answer is that roughly three million vehicles were projected to be repossessed in the United States in 2025 — a projection repeated by CBS and other outlets — but that projection is contingent on how one converts 7.5+ million repossession assignments into actual recoveries and on fourth‑quarter seasonality; alternative, more conservative estimates exist (near 1.8 million) and the gap between assignments and recoveries means the true count cannot be pinned down precisely from the public reporting alone [1] [2] [6].