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Which grocery items have seen price drops recently?
Executive summary
Some grocery items have seen recent price declines, but headline data show overall grocery prices remain higher year‑over‑year and are still rising in many categories (BLS; CNN) [1] [2]. Available reporting highlights eggs, lettuce and tomatoes, and occasional turkey retail features as specific items that have fallen in price in 2025, while many meats, prepared items and some Thanksgiving staples rose [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. Eggs: a visible, cited fall after the bird‑flu shock
Several outlets report eggs as a clear example of a recent price decline: after sharp spikes tied to highly pathogenic avian influenza, egg prices have come down from their 2025 peaks and are reported about 9% cheaper year‑over‑year in one roundup [3]. Money also notes eggs fell more than 40% from their March peak at one point in 2025, illustrating how volatile animal‑protein prices can reverse within months [7].
2. Lettuce and tomatoes: produce with seasonal and regional relief
At least one industry analysis says improved growing conditions in California helped push lettuce and tomato prices down by more than 6% in the first half of 2025, showing how weather and local harvests can quickly affect grocery aisle pricing [4]. Produce is volatile: the USDA/BLS tracking shows fresh‑vegetable indexes can swing sharply month‑to‑month [8].
3. Turkeys: wholesale up but retailers using promotional pricing
Wholesale turkey prices were higher in 2025 than in 2024 because of reduced turkey flock size, yet retail grocers commonly run Thanksgiving features and were reported offering lower advertised prices for whole frozen turkeys in early November—so shoppers may see temporary retail price drops despite higher farm‑level costs [6] [5].
4. Where prices are still rising: many meat cuts, packaged sides and general CPI trends
Government CPI releases and news fact‑checks stress that overall food and grocery inflation remained positive in 2025: the BLS reported the food index up 3.1% over 12 months and multiple grocery categories rose in recent months [1]. CNBC and CNN cite higher prices for items like canned cranberry sauce, cream of mushroom soup and pecan pies around Thanksgiving, and note many of the 20 Thanksgiving side‑dish items they tracked were more expensive year‑over‑year [6] [2].
5. Short‑term drops vs. long‑run patterns: volatility rules some items
Reporting emphasizes that individual items will inevitably fall at times—avocados and eggs are examples—but that aggregate grocery prices rarely decline across the board. Analysts say meat and produce are especially volatile; isolated declines do not necessarily mean a sustained overall fall in grocery costs [7] [9].
6. Forecasts and expectations: modest deceleration, not sweeping price cuts
USDA and other forecasters expected food‑at‑home price increases to moderate in 2025 compared with earlier years, suggesting slower growth rather than broad declines; some outlets say groceries may “decouple” with a few lower‑priced items amid overall inflation [10] [8] [9]. Supermarket and consumer‑insights reporting show shoppers shifting choices and scrutinizing promotions, which can make some categories look cheaper at the shelf even as headline inflation remains positive [11].
7. How to interpret contradictory signals and political claims
Political claims that “groceries are way down” are contradicted by CPI data showing grocery price increases; fact‑checks note average grocery prices rose between January and September and year‑over‑year figures remained positive [2] [1]. At the same time, specific items and time‑limited retail promotions do produce real savings for shoppers—so both the macro CPI picture and micro item‑level drops reported by outlets are true in their respective contexts [2] [5].
8. Practical takeaway for shoppers and reporters
If you want items that have recently declined, look to eggs, certain leafy greens and tomatoes, and seasonal promotional turkeys as concrete examples cited in reporting [3] [4] [5]. But treat these as item‑level or temporal moves: the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other trackers show overall grocery inflation remains positive, so expect uneven relief rather than widespread price declines [1] [8].
Limitations: available sources do not provide a complete, up‑to‑the‑day item list across every store or region; they report selected items and national indexes that can move differently in local markets (not found in current reporting).