Fact check: Is this article correct or wrong; https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/03/20/structural-transformation

1. Summary of the results

The article appears to be largely accurate in its economic forecasts and concerns, supported by multiple data points. Key findings show that Russia's economy is facing significant challenges in 2025, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.3-1.5% according to both the IMF and Central Bank ^[1]. The analysis confirms several critical economic indicators mentioned in the article, including:

• Real wage growth declining to 3.1% from 8% ^[1]
• Ruble depreciation of 10-20% expected ^[1]
• Stagnating oil and gas revenues ^[1]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The article should be viewed alongside several crucial contextual elements not fully explored:

1. EU Sanctions Context:

• €200 billion in Russian central bank reserves remain frozen ^[2]
• A critical decision point is approaching in July 2025 regarding sanctions renewal ^[2]
• Hungary and Slovakia's potential opposition to extending sanctions could dramatically change the economic outlook ^[2]

2. Military-Economic Interface:

• The possibility of a second military mobilization could further impact economic projections ^[1]
• The ongoing war spending continues to strain the economy ^[1]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

While the article's economic projections appear well-supported, readers should consider:

1. Timing Sensitivity:

• The article's predictions could be significantly affected by the potential lapse of EU sanctions in July 2025 ^[2]
• The immediate release of €200 billion in frozen assets could substantially alter the economic outlook ^[2]

2. Stakeholder Interests:

• The EU has a vested interest in maintaining the narrative of Russian economic weakness to justify sanctions ^[2]
• Russian authorities might benefit from downplaying economic challenges while emphasizing resilience ^[1]

The article should be read with the understanding that economic forecasts are inherently uncertain, especially given the complex geopolitical factors at play.