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Fact check: Can Russia import sufficient refined oil products to meet domestic demand?
Executive Summary
Russia currently faces competing narratives about whether it can import enough refined oil products to meet domestic demand: multiple news accounts from 26–01 October 2025 describe large-scale refinery outages — roughly 38–40% of capacity offline — that complicate import needs, while Russian official statements say exports will continue only when domestic supply exceeds demand, implying authorities claim domestic needs can be prioritized [1] [2] [3] [4]. The available documents show disagreement on scale and cause of shortages and offer no definitive proof that imports alone can or cannot fully cover Russia’s domestic shortfall.
1. Strikes and Sanctions Paint a Picture of Acute Refinery Damage
Several contemporaneous reports dated 26 September–1 October 2025 describe Ukrainian drone and missile campaigns that have taken a substantial portion of Russian refining capacity offline, with repeated quantifications near 38–40% of primary refining capacity and language calling it Russia’s worst fuel crisis in decades [1] [3] [2]. These sources present a consistent causal link from attacks to lost refining throughput and then to domestic shortages. The framing in these pieces emphasizes operational disruption and logistical bottlenecks inside Russia, suggesting that even if imports were available, the distribution system and timing challenges caused by damage would complicate immediate relief [3] [1].
2. Russian Official Line Emphasizes Domestic First and Conditional Exports
A senior Russian official, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, publicly stated that exports will continue only when domestic oil products supply exceeds domestic demand, signaling a prioritization policy that could shift allocation toward home markets despite external pressures [4]. This statement functions as both reassurance to domestic audiences and a policy commitment; it does not supply independent data on volumes available or specific import strategies. The declaration must be read alongside media reports of disrupted refining capacity, which create a tension between the official claim of manageable domestic supply and independent reporting of shortages [1] [2].
3. Importing from Asia Is Being Cited as a Response—but Logistics Matter
At least one outlet reported that Russia plans or intends to import gasoline from Asian markets as a response to refinery losses, framing imports as a stopgap to offset the domestic shortfall [2]. That reporting underscores that imports are part of Moscow’s toolkit, but the pieces do not provide concrete import volumes, contracted sources, shipping timelines, or how sanctions and price-cap regimes might affect those transactions. The import option, therefore, remains documented as a strategy rather than demonstrated capacity to fully substitute for a loss of nearly 40% of refining throughput [2].
4. Wider Market Estimates Introduce Larger Figures and Additional Uncertainty
Some analyses present an even larger impact estimate — claiming over 1 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline — which, if accurate, would substantially increase Russia’s import needs and complicate the feasibility of meeting domestic demand through external purchases [5]. This source introduces greater scale and urgency but does not reconcile its estimate with the 38–40% figure in other reporting. The divergence among independent accounts highlights uncertainty about the precise magnitude of lost capacity, leaving open multiple scenarios from manageable