How did Spotify’s subscriber numbers and revenue change in Q4 2025 after the ICE ad controversy?

1. Q3 baseline before Q4: subscriber and revenue momentum

Spotify closed Q3 2025 with 281 million paying premium subscribers and 713 million monthly active users, and reported total revenue of about €4.3 billion, establishing the quarter’s baseline that management used to forecast Q4 performance ^{[1] [2]}.

2. Q4 2025 guidance — projected subscriber and revenue increases

Management told investors it expected to add roughly eight million premium subscribers in Q4, taking paid subs to 289 million, and forecasted around €4.5 billion in total revenue for Q4 2025, implying continued year‑over‑year growth into year‑end ^{[2] [3] [4]}.

3. Year‑over‑year comparison to Q4 2024 shows clear gains

Compared with Q4 2024, when Spotify reported 263 million subscribers and €4.2 billion in revenue, the Q3/Q4 2025 trajectory — from 281 million toward a projected 289 million subs and guidance of €4.5 billion — represents both sequential and year‑over‑year expansion in paid users and top‑line expectations ^{[5] [1] [3]}.

4. Advertising revenue weakness complicates the picture

Although subscription revenue grew and management leaned on pricing and product initiatives, ad‑supported revenue was reported as declining year‑over‑year in the latest quarter (a 6% decline reported in Q3), a dynamic Spotify characterized as a transition year for ads and which management said they expect to improve in the back half of 2026 — a nuance that tempers how cleanly higher subscriber totals translate to overall revenue mix strength ^{[6] [7]}.

5. No public, verifiable link in the sources between the ICE ad controversy and Q4 results

The supplied earnings releases, analyst reports, and call transcripts document subscriber counts, revenue, guidance and commentary on ads and pricing, but none of the provided excerpts attribute Q4 subscriber growth or revenue changes to public reaction to an ICE‑related ad controversy or mention such a controversy in relation to user or advertiser behavior; therefore a causal claim that the controversy moved Q4 figures is unsupported by the cited reporting ^{[1] [2] [6]}.

6. Alternative explanations and corporate framing to consider

Spotify framed its growth as the result of pricing, product innovation and operational leverage while flagging ads as a temporary headwind and forecasting a turnaround, an investor‑friendly narrative that could downplay event‑driven impacts; conversely, outside observers might point to ad‑revenue softness as consistent with advertiser pullback from controversies, but that interpretation isn’t confirmed in the company’s reported numbers or commentary cited here ^{[1] [6] [2]}.

7. Bottom line: what changed in Q4 2025, per the reporting

Per Spotify’s own reporting and analyst summaries, paid subscribers increased from 281 million in Q3 toward a guided 289 million by end‑Q4 and total revenue was guided up to about €4.5 billion for Q4 — subscription growth and higher total revenue were the headline changes, while ad revenue weakness persisted; the provided sources do not supply evidence that links these outcomes to the ICE ad controversy ^{[1] [2] [6] [3]}.