Fact check: Tariffs are boosting US aluminum production. A South Carolina plant is near full capacity, creating jobs with six-figure salaries. true or false

Executive Summary — Short Answer with Context

The claim is partly true but incomplete: tariffs are a key factor cited by industry players for the recent restart and ramp-up at Century Aluminum’s Mt. Holly/Berkeley County, South Carolina smelter, which plans to add more than 100 jobs with average wages near $100,000 and to raise U.S. aluminum output; independent data and prior trends, however, show mixed national production signals that complicate a blanket “tariffs are boosting production” verdict. Century Aluminum and multiple news accounts tie the restart and a reported ~10% boost in U.S. capacity directly to Section 232 tariffs and related policies, but US Geological Survey data and other analyses show earlier declines in primary production and point to trade flows and other economic factors as important context ^{[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]}. In short: the South Carolina plant’s near-full restart and six-figure-average wages are corroborated by company announcements, but attributing broad U.S. production gains solely to tariffs overstates the case.

1. The Concrete Claim: A South Carolina Plant Near Full Capacity and High Pay — What’s Verified

Century Aluminum publicly pledged a $50 million restart of the Mt. Holly/Berkeley County smelter, targeting full production by mid‑2026 and an employment increase of roughly 100 positions with average wages near $100,000, a claim carried in multiple contemporaneous reports ^{[1] [3]}. Company statements and reporting specifically link the restart to revived demand and policy support, and local utility and state-level cooperation was cited as enabling factors ^{[1] [2]}. The reporting presents the plant-level facts as factual commitments: the investment amount, job count, target production timeline, and wage figures are all explicitly stated by Century and repeated by trade press, supporting the component of the original statement that describes a near‑full plant and six‑figure average salaries ^{[1] [3]}. Those plant-level details are therefore verifiable from industry announcements.

2. Tariffs Cited as a Primary Driver — Company Narrative and Supportive Coverage

Century and allied coverage explicitly credit President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs and subsequent policy measures with creating the commercial environment that made the restart viable; some articles describe the restart as a direct result of tariff-driven market changes and local support, and even quantify a U.S. production increase tied to the restart ^{[2] [3]}. Industry voices praising the tariffs contrast with other firms’ criticism, and reporting shows that the tariffs reshaped incentives for scrap and recycling and altered import economics ^[6]. The narrative that tariffs materially influenced the firm’s decision is well documented in company statements and trade reporting, making the causal claim plausible at the company level, though it reflects the company’s perspective and strategic framing ^{[1] [2] [6]}.

3. National Production Trends Tell a More Nuanced Story

Independent production metrics before and during the policy changes complicate a simple cause-and-effect conclusion: US primary aluminum production recorded a Y/Y decline through April 2024, including an 11–13% drop in reported periods, suggesting capacity and output dynamics fluctuated prior to these restarts ^[4]. Broader trade analyses show that duties proposed or expanded would affect hundreds of billions in derivative imports, indicating tariffs alter trade flows but do not automatically translate into uniform domestic output increases ^[5]. Thus while plant restarts add capacity, national-level statistics and trade-volume data show mixed trends and imply other drivers — electricity costs, environmental compliance, global prices, and scrap markets — mediated the ultimate production outcome ^{[4] [5]}.

4. Competing Industry Views and Non-Tariff Constraints

The industry reaction is divided: Century and some smaller producers praise tariffs for restoring competitiveness and prompting investment, but larger producers and trade critics have publicly faulted tariffs for raising costs or creating market distortions, and environmental compliance liabilities have affected operations at the same facilities that benefitted from tariff policies ^{[6] [7]}. For example, Century has faced pollution fines that underscore regulatory and operational obstacles that persist regardless of trade policy and could limit sustained production increases ^[7]. This mix of voices shows that tariffs are one of several levers and that plant-level gains can coexist with environmental penalties and sector-wide concerns.

5. Bottom Line: What You Can Reliably Say and What Remains Unproven

You can reliably say the Mt. Holly/Berkeley County plant was announced to restart with substantial investment, a plan to reach near-full production, and creation of roughly 100 jobs averaging about $100,000 — and company reporting frames tariffs as a decisive factor in that decision ^{[1] [2] [3]}. What remains unproven is the broad generalization that tariffs alone are lifting overall U.S. aluminum production uniformly; national production data and trade analyses show prior output declines and complex trade flows, meaning tariffs contributed to certain restarts but are not the only or always dominant cause of changes in aggregate production ^{[4] [5]}. The truthful characterization: the plant-level claims are supported, while the claim that tariffs by themselves are boosting overall U.S. production is overstated without qualification.