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Fact check: Which state has a higher GDP growth rate, Texas or California?
Executive Summary
Texas is frequently reported to have a higher recent GDP growth rate than California in multiple items of the provided material, particularly for 2023 and parts of 2025, though the two states’ figures are reported unevenly across sources and time periods. The evidence shows Texas outpacing California on several growth metrics (not total GDP size), but the datasets referenced are inconsistent in scope and date, leaving a precise, single definitive comparison dependent on which quarter or year is chosen [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. What the analysts claimed loudly and why it matters
Several summaries assert Texas grew faster than California, citing specific rates: an annualized 7.7% for Texas in Q3 2023 and a 5.7% or similar figure for Texas in 2023 versus California’s 2.7% in 2023 [1] [2]. These claims matter because growth rate compares momentum, not size: California’s economy remains much larger in absolute GDP (reported as $3.85 trillion), so faster percentage growth in Texas does not make it larger overall [2]. The coexistence of these statements shows a recurring narrative that Texas is “growing faster” while California remains the larger economy.
2. Government and BEA snapshots that bolster Texas’s case
A 2025 BEA-related summary and a Texas press release emphasize strong Texan expansion in 2025: the BEA report says real GDP rose in 48 states and flags Texas as above the national average, while the Governor’s press release claims Texas expanded at a 6.8% annual rate in Q2 2025 [4] [3]. These sources strengthen the argument that Texas experienced pronounced growth spurts through 2025, but both lack a contemporaneous, direct California comparison in the same release, which limits head-to-head interpretation [4] [3].
3. California’s counter-evidence: growth and global standing
Other provided material highlights substantial California growth, including a reported 6% growth rate in 2024 and the claim California became the fourth-largest global economy [5]. Those points illustrate that California experienced significant expansion in at least one recent year, and that its absolute size and some annual growth metrics remain competitive globally. However, this material does not present California’s 2025 quarterly rates to directly counter the Texas 2025 press figures, leaving comparisons across non-overlapping timeframes [5].
4. Data gaps and mismatched timeframes that complicate conclusions
The assembled sources present incomplete overlap: some cite calendar 2023 growth rates [1] [2], others quote 2024 growth for California [5], and still others provide quarterly 2025 figures or BEA snapshots without matching partner-state numbers [4] [3]. This mixture creates an apples-to-oranges problem: one source’s annualized Q3 2023 Texas rate is not directly comparable to another’s calendar-year 2024 California number. The absence of synchronized, side-by-side BEA state growth rates in the provided set is the central limitation.
5. Sector drivers and why they shift the headline numbers
The material indicates sectoral drivers differ: Texas’s 2025 gains are linked to mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, which can produce sharp swings in state GDP when commodity prices change [4]. California’s growth narratives emphasize broad economic scale and tech-driven resilience, which can produce steadier but sometimes slower percentage gains. These differing structures mean short-term headlines about which state grew “faster” can flip depending on energy cycles, tech investment, and timing, explaining contradictory-sounding but factually separate reports [4] [2].
6. How to read claims from state spokespeople and summaries
A governor’s office release trumpeting a 6.8% Q2 2025 Texas rate should be read as a selective highlight intended for positive messaging; it omits a direct California comparator in the same quarter [3]. BEA summaries are more neutral but the provided BEA-derived notes still lack paired state rates for the same quarters [4]. The combination means political or promotional framing likely amplifies Texas’s strong periods while other sources emphasize California’s global scale and episodic growth, producing divergent but not mutually exclusive truths.
7. Bottom line: what the available evidence supports and what remains unknown
Based on the provided analyses, Texas is described more often as having higher recent growth rates (notably in 2023 and parts of 2025), while California remains the larger economy and shows significant growth in 2024 [1] [2] [3] [5]. What remains unresolved is a single, contemporaneous, BEA-validated comparison showing both states’ growth rates for the exact same quarter[6]. Without that synchronized dataset, definitive claims favoring one state for all recent periods over the other are not fully supportable from the supplied material [4].