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Did US-China trade agreements or tariffs in 2023–2024 affect soybean shipments to China?
Executive Summary
U.S.–China tariff actions and related trade negotiations during 2023–2024 materially reduced U.S. soybean shipments to China, as tariffs kept U.S. beans more expensive than Brazilian alternatives and prompted a sustained buyer shift. Multiple trade analyses and export data show China’s share of U.S. soybean purchases fell sharply in 2024, with near‑zero monthly shipments at points and Brazil/Argentina picking up the slack [1] [2] [3].
1. Why prices and tariffs pushed China away from U.S. soybeans
Trade reporting and policy analysis describe a clear price mechanism: Chinese tariffs and unresolved trade frictions in 2023–2024 made U.S. soybeans significantly costlier than Brazilian supplies, altering procurement choices. Reuters and trade reports documented that China kept a tariff on U.S. soybeans (about 13% in 2024 in some accounts) and limited tariff relief under partial agreements, which left U.S. beans at a price disadvantage compared with Brazil [1]. Commentaries from policy centers note that tariff hikes and uncertainty discouraged buyers, creating periods in 2024 when monthly U.S. shipments to China were near zero and encouraging a structural shift in procurement toward South America [4] [5]. The cumulative effect was not a momentary dip but a sustained competitiveness loss for U.S. exporters through the 2023–2024 window [6] [2].
2. How big the drop was — export volumes and market share shifts
Multiple analyses converge on a major decline in U.S. market share in China. China’s share of U.S. soybean exports dropped to roughly 20–21% of its soybean purchases in 2024 from over 40% in 2016, and U.S. export values fell from about $32 billion in 2023 to $27 billion in 2024 in some data summaries [2] [6]. Other sources quantify purchases differently but still show sharp falls: one set of figures cites China buying about 985 million bushels in 2024 with a collapse to 218 million bushels by August 2025 as purchases shifted to Brazil and Argentina [3]. Analysts modeled deeper reversions to tariffs and estimated potential U.S. soybean export declines of roughly 50% under certain scenarios, underlining how policy changes translate quickly into large trade flows [5].
3. Timing and the role of 2023–2024 trade agreements
Assessments emphasize that the 2023–2024 period included stopgap agreements and negotiations that failed to restore pre‑tariff trade patterns, even where short‑term easing occurred. The Phase One experience earlier had temporarily boosted sales, but subsequent agreements in 2023–2024 did not deliver sustained purchase commitments or tariff removals, and some tariff levels were maintained or later increased, reinforcing buyer hesitancy [6] [1]. Policy commentaries argue the combination of partial deals, lingering tariffs, and renewed geopolitical friction during 2023–2024 provided insufficient incentive for Chinese buyers to return to U.S. suppliers, so the timing of negotiations and the content of agreements mattered as much as headline diplomatic steps [4].
4. Where the soybeans went — winners and longer‑term supply shifts
Economic modeling and trade data point to Brazil and Argentina as the principal beneficiaries of reduced U.S. shipments in 2023–2024, with Brazilian soybeans repeatedly identified as the competitively priced alternative that filled China’s demand. Studies suggest Brazil could gain several million metric tons annually in a re‑routed global supply structure, and analysts warn these gains may be persistent because of investments and logistics networks that solidify new trade patterns [5]. The shift to South American supplies also affects seasonal procurement strategies and port logistics in China, increasing the likelihood that market share recovery for the U.S. would require more than short‑term price adjustments [3] [2].
5. Diverging estimates and what to watch next
Sources agree on a substantive impact but diverge on magnitudes and timing of recovery. Some reports place U.S. export revenue declines in the billions through late 2024 and into 2025, while scenario studies project potential losses of roughly half of exports under tariff reinstatement scenarios [4] [5]. The key near‑term indicators to watch are Chinese tariff policy statements, monthly customs import data showing U.S. versus Brazilian origins, and any binding purchase commitments in renewed deals; these metrics will determine whether the 2023–2024 disruptions become long‑term structural change or a cyclical displacement [6] [3].
6. Bottom line: causation, consequences, and context
The evidence establishes that tariffs and incomplete trade agreements in 2023–2024 were a proximate cause of the drop in U.S. soybean shipments to China, shifting volumes to Brazil and Argentina and reducing U.S. agricultural revenues. Analysts caution that geopolitical dynamics, logistical advantages, and contract behavior also contributed, meaning the outcome was a mix of policy‑driven price effects and market adaptation; reversing the trend requires clear, durable policy changes and competitive pricing. The documented declines in shipments, market share, and modeled exposure together show a significant, measurable impact from the 2023–2024 trade environment [1] [4] [2].