Fact check: Which countries would the US fall behind in GDP without California?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the most recent data from 2024, California's GDP stands at $4.103 trillion, representing approximately 14% of the total US GDP of $29.184 trillion ^[1]. Without California, the US GDP would be reduced to roughly $25.081 trillion. However, there are conflicting reports about California's exact ranking:

• Some sources claim it would be the 5th largest economy globally ^{[2] [3]}
• Others suggest it would be the 6th largest economy, ahead of France, India, Italy, and Brazil ^[4]
• There's specific evidence contradicting claims that California has surpassed Germany, showing Germany's GDP at $4.125 trillion compared to California's $3.701 trillion as of Q4 2022 ^[5]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual factors should be considered:

• California achieves its economic output with fewer workers than comparable economies - for example, producing more than France with 6 million fewer workers ^[4]
• The state's GDP per capita is remarkably high at $78,000, making it one of the wealthiest potential countries globally ^[3]
• There's significant historical growth in California's GDP, rising from $2.44 trillion in 2015 ^[4] to $4.103 trillion in 2024 ^[1]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

Several potential sources of misinformation exist:

• Political claims by state leaders like Governor Newsom have incorrectly positioned California as the 4th largest economy globally ^[5]
• Different sources use data from different years ^{[6] [7] [8] [9]}, which can lead to conflicting rankings and conclusions
• The comparison between a state and sovereign nations may be misleading as states operate under different economic conditions and regulations

Those who benefit from overstating California's economic position include:

• State political leaders who can claim credit for economic success
• California-based businesses and investors using the state's economic prominence as a selling point
• Those advocating for California's independence or greater autonomy