What portion of US soybean export revenue in 2024 came from sales to China?

1. Claims on the Table: Who Said What and Why It Matters

Multiple reviews and news analyses claim that China accounted for about half of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, with numbers clustered around $12.6 billion and 51–53% of the U.S. export total of roughly $24.5 billion. One set of sources reports 985 million bushels shipped to China representing 51% of U.S. exports, while policy analysts point to a five‑year average near 53%, framing 2024 as consistent with recent patterns ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}. These claims are significant because they quantify market concentration and underline the agricultural sector’s exposure to Chinese purchasing decisions and global competition from Brazil and Argentina. Understanding whether the share is 51% or 53% affects assessments of risk and policy responses, especially for trade diversification strategies.

2. The Best Available Number: Value and Volume Tell the Same Story

The most consistent figure across analyses is $12.6 billion in U.S. soybean exports to China in 2024, compared to a U.S. soybean export total near $24.47 billion, yielding a share roughly 51–52% by value. Several sources corroborate the same ballpark using either monetary value or bushel volumes—985 million bushels to China in 2024 is cited alongside the dollar figure—producing near‑identical percentage calculations when compared to total U.S. exports ^{[1] [2]}. Both value and volume metrics point to China buying just over half of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, making that the most defensible headline statistic given the available analyses.

3. Why Different Sources Give Slightly Different Percentages

Discrepancies between 51% and 53% stem from measurement choices, data vintage, and whether figures are reported in metric tons, bushels, or export values. Some analyses use export value (dollars), while others report volume (bushels or metric tons); currency valuation, port timing, and the USDA’s marketing‑year accounting can shift percentages by a couple points ^{[1] [3] [4] [2]}. Political‑economy accounts also adjust interpretations to emphasize vulnerability to Chinese purchasing shifts or to highlight long‑term structural trends such as Brazil’s rising market share. Different narratives reflect differing analytical aims—trade exposure, farmer income impacts, or strategic competition—rather than large factual disagreement about the core number.

4. Context: The Broader Trade Picture and Recent Shocks

Even with China taking roughly half of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, 2025 data and reporting signal a rapid change in flows: several sources document a sharp decline in Chinese purchases in 2025 and substitution toward Brazil and Argentina, with 2025 shipments through August far below 2024 levels ^{[2] [4]}. Analysts and trade groups emphasize that while 2024 was a year of concentrated Chinese demand, that concentration exposes U.S. producers to policy and commercial risk. The policy implication is clear: a 50‑plus percent dependence on one market is strategically important, and recent shifts underscore how quickly market shares can change in agricultural commodity trade.

5. Sources, Uncertainties, and the Bottom Line

The convergent evidence across the supplied analyses yields a reliable summary: China accounted for roughly $12.6 billion and about 51–53% of U.S. soybean export revenue in 2024 ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}. Remaining uncertainties stem from timing conventions (calendar year vs. marketing year), valuation methods, and updates in trade flows after 2024. Multiple analyses note the same core figures but attach different narratives—some stress long‑run dependency and coercive economic risk, others emphasize market competition and structural decline in share due to South American exports. Bottom line: the best supported fact is that just over half of U.S. soybean export revenue in 2024 came from China, and that concentration is the central policy and market vulnerability highlighted by the sources ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}.