Fact check: What was the total value of US soybean exports to China in 2024?

1. A clear headline: USDA data pins 2024 China soybean purchases at $12.64 billion

The primary, repeated claim in the supplied material is that the USDA recorded $12.64 billion in U.S. soybean exports to China in 2024, representing a major share of overall U.S. soybean export value of $24.47 billion and a total export volume of 52.21 million metric tons ^[1]. These sources attribute the dollar figure directly to USDA reporting and present it as a settled accounting of export receipts. That $12.64 billion figure is the central, consistent data point across the supplied analyses, which makes it the best-supported numerical answer available in the dataset provided.

2. Corroboration and the evidence trail: why USDA figures dominate the narrative

Multiple items in the supplied analyses cite USDA data for 2024 and repeat the identical valuation ($12.64 billion), reflecting reliance on the same underlying government dataset ^[1]. USDA export valuations are standard reference points for agricultural trade statistics, combining volumes and unit prices to produce export receipts. The repetition across independent summaries in the supplied material strengthens the claim’s reliability within this dataset. At the same time, the supplied materials do not include a contrasting government or independent accounting that contradicts the $12.64 billion number, so within the provided evidence the USDA figure stands uncontested ^[1].

3. Context beyond dollars: volumes and market share that matter to interpretation

The supplied analyses offer additional context: a stated total U.S. soybean export volume of 52.21 million metric tons, and references that U.S. shipments to China in 2024 accounted for large shares of U.S. exports — for example, Purdue reporting nearly 985 million bushels to China or roughly 51% of U.S. exports that year ^{[1] [2]}. Dollar values can shift with price swings even when volumes are large, so the $12.64 billion figure should be read alongside volume and market-share data to understand whether revenue changes reflect altered quantities, price movements, or both ^{[1] [2]}.

4. Missing links and forward-looking claims: contracts, commitments, and projections

Some supplied analyses discuss future purchase agreements and commitments — notably China’s agreed purchases and multi-year minimums — but they do not provide alternate 2024 valuations and instead describe potential future flows useful for forecasting ^[3]. These forward-looking statements can influence expectations of future export value but are not evidence that the 2024 figure differs from USDA accounting. Treat contract announcements and purchase targets as distinct from historical export valuation; they may presage higher or steadier values in subsequent years, but they do not retroactively change the 2024 number ^[3].

5. Cross-checks, caveats, and potential agendas in the provided materials

The supplied materials include government data repetition and industry commentary such as the American Soybean Association contextualizing China’s buyer role ^[4]. Industry groups have an incentive to highlight large market shares and the importance of China to U.S. producers, which can shape emphasis though not necessarily the numeric USDA figure. The primary caveat is that the dataset provided contains multiple restatements of the same USDA figure rather than a diversity of independent accounting methods; therefore the best-supported answer in this evidence base remains $12.64 billion, but a full external audit would consult the USDA source directly and cross-check customs and Chinese import valuation records for complementary confirmation ^[4].

6. Bottom line and recommended verification steps

Based on the supplied evidence, the correct, best-supported response is that U.S. soybean exports to China were valued at $12.64 billion in 2024, per USDA reporting repeated across the provided analyses ^[1]. For users seeking absolute confirmation beyond the supplied summaries, the recommended next steps are to consult the original USDA trade tables and to cross-reference U.S. Census export microdata and Chinese customs import valuation for 2024; doing so will validate unit-price assumptions and reconcile any timing or reporting differences that can affect headline dollar totals ^[1].