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Fact check: What was the dollar value of US soybean exports to China in 2024 according to USDA?
Executive Summary
USDA data cited in your materials reports two close but conflicting dollar figures for 2024 U.S. soybean exports to China: $12.64 billion and $12.84 billion. Multiple entries also show the U.S. total soybean export value at $24.47 billion for 2024, implying China accounted for roughly half of U.S. soybean export value that year.
1. Grabbing the Headlines: What the claims actually say
The assembled claims present three principal numeric assertions: first, that the total U.S. soybean export value in 2024 was $24.47 billion, and second, that China’s share of that value was $12.64 billion according to one USDA citation [1]. A competing USDA-derived figure lists China’s 2024 soybean export value as $12.84 billion along with a volume of 27.21 million metric tons [2]. A separate news item mentions export volumes to China measured in bushels—about 985 million bushels representing roughly 51% of U.S. soybean exports in 2024—but does not provide a dollar total [3]. These are the core, conflicting numeric claims.
2. Line-by-line source inventory: who said what, and when
The primary USDA references in your dataset are reported with publication dates in April 2025 [1] and April 28, 2025 [2]. Both USDA-linked entries appear to be drawn from official USDA or Foreign Agricultural Service pages that summarize calendar-year trade flows. The $12.64 billion figure appears multiple times [1] while the $12.84 billion / 27.21 mt pair appears in one USDA FAS entry [2]. Secondary reporting—Farm Policy News and other market reports—focus on later 2025 purchase commitments and volumes [4] [3], which confirm heavy Chinese demand but do not settle the narrow dollar discrepancy. The timing and duplication of USDA-derived figures are central to the divergence.
3. Why $12.64B and $12.84B can both appear in official data
Small divergences between $12.64B and $12.84B for the same year commonly reflect data vintage, rounding, or differences in valuation methods reported on different USDA pages: one dataset may use f.o.b. (free on board) valuation at U.S. ports, another may use customs-based or partner-country valuation, and publication updates can retroactively revise figures as late-arriving bills and adjustments are processed [1] [2]. The presence of a volume statistic—27.21 million metric tons—paired with $12.84B suggests one dataset converted physical shipments into a dollar figure using a particular average price series, while the $12.64B line may reflect an alternate price basis or a preliminary estimate later revised [2] [1]. Both numbers are plausibly USDA outputs; the difference is narrow and likely methodological.
4. Cross-checks from volume metrics and total export value
The U.S. 2024 total soybean export value of $24.47B provides a useful anchor: if China accounted for $12.64–$12.84B, that implies China represented approximately 52%–53% of U.S. soybean export value in 2024 [1]. Volume reporting—985 million bushels to China [3] or 27.21 million metric tons [2]—aligns with the notion that China took roughly half the U.S. export volume, consistent with the monetary share. Price per unit differences between datasets can therefore explain the modest dollar gap while reinforcing the broader conclusion that China was by far the largest U.S. soybean market in 2024.
5. What this means for users citing the statistic
If you must cite a single authoritative dollar figure for U.S. soybean exports to China in 2024, the safest approach is to cite the specific USDA page and its publication date you relied on (either the $12.64B line or the $12.84B line), and note that USDA releases contain closely adjacent revised totals. The materials you supplied most consistently reference $12.64 billion across multiple entries [1], while one USDA FAS entry reports $12.84 billion with 27.21 mt [2]. Flagging the small discrepancy and giving the exact USDA URL/publication date resolves potential challenges to the figure.
6. Bottom line and recommended citation practice
Bottom line: USDA-based reporting supports that China’s 2024 purchases of U.S. soybeans were worth roughly $12.6–$12.8 billion, and U.S. soybean exports totaled $24.47 billion that year, with China taking roughly half of volume and value [1] [2]. For precision and defensibility, quote the specific USDA page and use the dollar figure shown there, and if possible include the reported volume to corroborate the valuation; note that minor revisions across USDA publications account for the narrow difference between $12.64B and $12.84B [2] [1].