Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: Did the US export $0 of soybeans to China last month?
Executive Summary
Multiple independent reports published October 20–23, 2025 confirm that China recorded no purchases of U.S. soybeans in September 2025, consistent with the claim that U.S. exports to China were effectively $0 for that month. This outcome reflects sustained trade tensions, tariff-driven shifts of Chinese buying to South America, and confirmation from U.S. soy industry groups that no new sales to China were booked or expected to be loaded in the near term [1] [2] [3].
1. A sudden headline: China buys zero U.S. soybeans for the first time in years — why it matters
Reuters and multiple outlets reported that September 2025 saw zero U.S. soybean imports into China, the first month that has happened since 2018, marking a striking shift in an important agricultural trade flow and signaling material market disruption [1]. This data point matters because China traditionally has been the world’s largest soy importer; when Chinese purchases from the United States drop to zero, it directly reduces U.S. export revenue and alters global supply chains as China reallocates demand to Brazil and Argentina, which now capture a dominant share of shipments [1] [4].
2. Corroboration from U.S. industry groups: no sales, nothing loading — real-world confirmation
U.S. industry groups including trade councils and farmer representatives publicly confirmed no new sales of U.S. soy to China and no shipments expected to be loaded in the coming weeks, echoing customs and trade data and underlining that the zero-import month was not a statistical anomaly but reflected active commercial reality [2] [3]. These groups warned of severe financial stress for some farmers if the situation persists, indicating the economic consequences extend beyond headline statistics to farm-level liquidity and regional economies dependent on soybean exports [2].
3. Global market reaction: futures, prices, and the substitution to South America
Market coverage noted U.S. soybean futures rose on hopes of resumed trade talks, even as transactional flows to China remained absent, showing a disconnect between price sentiment and immediate physical shipments [3]. Meanwhile, reporting emphasized China’s pivot toward Brazil and Argentina, with South American suppliers filling the gap and capturing an 85%-plus share of China’s soybean imports in recent reporting, which reshapes how exporters and traders plan crop allocation, shipping, and risk [1] [4].
4. Historical context and the possible permanence of market share loss
Analysts and commentaries argue this zero-import month may be symptomatic of a longer-term realignment, with some authors suggesting the U.S. has permanently ceded market share due to policy-driven trade friction [5]. While one source described the situation as a potential lasting loss for U.S. soy in global markets, reporting also shows this is part of a pattern dating back to earlier trade tensions; the September zero figure is the most recent data point in a broader multi-year trend of reduced bilateral purchases [5] [1].
5. Competing narratives and possible agendas behind the reporting
Coverage from international wire services and regional outlets converges on the same factual claim, but framing varies: some emphasize immediate farmer distress and policy failure in the U.S., while others highlight China’s strategic diversification of supplies and geopolitical risk management [2] [6]. Readers should note potential agendas: domestic outlets may foreground farmer hardship to pressure policymakers, while Chinese or South American–oriented reporting may stress supply-chain resilience and the benefits of diversified sources, so selective emphasis can shape perceptions even when core facts align [6] [4].
6. Limits of the claim and what “$0” actually represents in trade data
Saying exports were “$0” in a given month is a shorthand based on customs declarations and booking reports indicating no shipments from U.S. origins were recorded for China in September 2025; this does not mean zero economic ties or that zero soy will ever flow again, only that recorded bilateral shipments were absent for that specific month, with industry confirmations corroborating no near-term bookings [1] [2]. Traders can still transact spot or future contracts; rapid changes in negotiations, tariffs, or logistical factors could reopen flows, so the figure is a temporal snapshot, not necessarily permanent [3].
7. Bottom line and what to watch next
The assembled reporting through October 23, 2025 unequivocally shows no U.S. soybean shipments to China were recorded for September 2025, corroborated by customs reports and U.S. industry statements [1] [2]. Key near-term indicators to monitor are: bilateral trade negotiations and tariff policy announcements, weekly USDA export sales and customs tallies, and South American export volumes; changes in any of these would materially affect whether the zero-import month is an isolated event or part of a lasting shift [3] [4].