U.S. STEEL PRODUCTION INCREASES Total U.S. Steel Production (Mt) 2024 v. 2025 81.8 81.6 81.4 81.2 81.0 80.8 80.6 80.4 80.2 2024 Total Steel Prod el Production 2025 (Mt)
Executive summary
Multiple outlets flagged a very small year‑over‑year uptick in U.S. steel production from 2024 to 2025 — a change in the low single digits percentage-wise — and criticized an official bar chart for exaggerating that move by truncating the vertical scale (showing roughly 81.6 vs. 81.8 Mt in one widely‑shared example) [1] [2]. Underneath the visual spin, industry and trade data point to a modest recovery in U.S. output helped by lower imports and policy shifts, but exact totals depend on whether reports use raw steel, finished steel, monthly series or annual aggregates [3] [4] [5].
1. The headline number: small absolute gain, small percentage gain
Public fact checks and reporting converged on the same reality: year‑over‑year production rose only slightly — commonly reported as an increase from roughly 81.6 million tonnes to about 81.8 million tonnes, which is about a 1–1.5% gain — and some official sources list 81.0 Mt for U.S. raw steel in 2024, which creates small differences depending on the metric used [2] [1] [3]. Worldsteel and other monthly compilations also show the U.S. producing roughly 6.9 Mt in December 2025 and report modest annual growth rates rather than any jump that would justify dramatic graphics [5].
2. Why the chart looked bigger than the change actually was
The specific social‑media graphic criticized by community annotators used a truncated y‑axis so the 0.2 Mt (or ~1%) rise visually read as a dramatic leap, a distortion flagged in community notes and by multiple outlets [1] [2]. This is a classic data‑visualization problem: when a chart omits the baseline or narrows the axis range, tiny absolute changes can appear large, and that is what commentators called out on the White House post [1] [6].
3. Policy and market drivers behind the modest increase
Reporting and industry data link the uptick to a mix of trade policy and shifting flows: heavy tariffs and tighter import volumes reduced foreign competition in 2025, contributing to higher domestic production and allowing the U.S. to overtake Japan in output rankings in some accounts [7] [4]. Trade and import statistics show total and finished steel imports falling by double digits over the 12‑month window ending November 2025, supporting higher domestic utilization even if overall demand growth was muted [4] [8].
4. Context: modest domestic gains against a global slowdown
Globally, steel production trends in late 2025 were uneven — worldsteel reported China and several other producers down on the year while the U.S. rose modestly, which helped lift the U.S. in the country rankings for 2025 [5]. But industry analysts also pointed to soft end‑use demand in construction and other sectors, meaning the U.S. gain is relative and small in absolute tonnage compared with global flows [9] [10].
5. Caveats, competing figures and what the numbers actually measure
Different sources report “raw steel,” “finished steel,” monthly vs. annual totals, and weekly production snapshots, which explains why one outlet will cite ~81.0 Mt for 2024 while others use 81.6–81.8 Mt; those definitional and timing differences matter when judging the size of any increase [3] [11]. Journalistic and community scrutiny that highlighted the misleading graphic did the right work — the underlying change is real but small — and readers should treat any single chart as provisional unless the metric and axis are fully transparent [1] [2].
6. Bottom line
U.S. steel production increased from 2024 to 2025 by a narrow margin — roughly a 1–3% rise depending on the dataset and whether raw or finished steel is counted — and that uptick was amplified misleadingly by a truncated bar chart circulated on social media and criticized by community notes and reporters [2] [1] [3]. The production gain reflects reduced imports and tariff‑driven market shifts rather than a sweeping industrial renaissance, and precise conclusions require care about which statistical series is cited [4] [7].