Fact check: Is tourism to US dangerously low.

1. Summary of the results

The analyses overwhelmingly confirm that tourism to the US is indeed dangerously low, with multiple sources documenting significant declines across various metrics. The data reveals a 12-14% decline in international travel to the US in March 2025 ^{[1] [2]}, with projections showing an 8.7-9.4% decline in international visitor arrivals for the entire year ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

The financial impact is substantial, with sources reporting projected losses of $8.5-12.5 billion in international visitor spending for 2025 ^{[4] [5] [3]}. One analysis indicates an even more severe projection of $29 billion in tourism revenue losses by 2025 ^[6]. Particularly concerning is that the US stands as the only country among 184 economies to experience a decline in foreign visitor expenditure ^{[6] [5]}, with international visitor spending down 22.5% compared to the previous peak ^[5].

Recovery timelines have been pushed back significantly, with economists postponing pre-pandemic recovery projections to 2029 ^[7], indicating the severity and persistence of the tourism decline.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal important nuances not captured in the simple question. While tourism is declining overall, there are mixed regional trends, with visitors from Mexico actually increasing even as Canadian visitors decline significantly ^[8]. This suggests the decline is not uniform across all source markets.

European travelers are specifically choosing Canada over the US due to multiple concerns ^[4], indicating that alternative destinations are benefiting from America's tourism struggles. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) appears to be a primary source for much of this data ^[5], and their economic projections would benefit tourism industry stakeholders who need accurate data for planning and advocacy.

Tourism industry organizations, travel companies, and destination marketing organizations would benefit from highlighting these alarming statistics to push for policy changes that could reverse the decline. Conversely, countries competing with the US for international tourists (particularly Canada) benefit from the narrative that America has become less welcoming to visitors.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself contains no apparent misinformation, as it poses a legitimate inquiry rather than making false claims. However, the framing as "dangerously low" could be seen as somewhat subjective, though the analyses support this characterization given the unprecedented nature of the decline.

The sources consistently attribute the decline to specific policy factors including restrictive immigration policies, travel bans, international tariffs, stricter trade policies, and visa regulations ^{[4] [6] [2] [3]}. Additional factors cited include concerns about political unrest, a hostile environment for visitors, negative perceptions of the US as a travel destination, and a strong US dollar ^{[4] [2] [3]}.

The consistency across multiple sources and the specific attribution to policy decisions suggests the data is credible rather than biased, though the sources appear to focus heavily on policy-related causes rather than exploring other potential factors like global economic conditions or competing destination marketing efforts.