Fact check: What share of Walmart employees earn below 138% of the federal poverty level and qualify for Medicaid in Medicaid expansion states?

1. What advocates and legislators have claimed — a provocative assertion with thin sourcing

Advocacy and legislative materials cited in the supplied archive assert that a substantial share of Walmart workers qualify for Medicaid, using that claim to justify public-policy responses such as the Maryland “Wal‑Mart Bill.” The client alert notes evidence presented to the Maryland legislature that suggests many Walmart employees fall below the 138% FPL threshold, but the document itself does not provide a quantified share or underlying raw data, leaving the claim unverified ^[2]. This partisan or campaign-oriented use of the claim should be treated as an assertion that requires employer-level wage distributions and state-level Medicaid rules to substantiate.

2. What national Medicaid and work data actually show — context that supports plausibility

Independent health-policy analyses show that a large portion of Medicaid adults are working, and many Medicaid enrollees are in low-wage jobs, making it plausible that significant shares of retail employees meet Medicaid income limits in expansion states. KFF’s recent analyses report that nearly two-thirds of non-elderly adults on Medicaid were working and that a full‑time minimum‑wage earner would fall below the 138% FPL cutoff in 2023 earnings comparisons, which supports the plausibility of the claim in low‑wage retail sectors ^{[1] [3]}. These national patterns create contextual support but do not substitute for Walmart-specific wage distribution data.

3. What Walmart’s public materials reveal — company-level silence on eligibility shares

Walmart’s employee benefits pages and enrollment FAQs describe their medical plans and eligibility rules but do not disclose the income distribution of their workforce or what share of employees lack employer-based coverage and therefore qualify for Medicaid. The company’s public materials focus on plan features and enrollment logistics rather than on workforce wage statistics or on interactions with public programs, leaving a crucial data gap for anyone trying to compute the share of employees below 138% FPL ^[4]. This absence makes it impossible to derive a defensible percentage from corporate disclosures alone.

4. Why a precise share cannot be computed from the supplied documents — the missing data puzzle

Computing a valid share requires three pieces: ^[5] the wage distribution of Walmart’s U.S. workforce, including hours worked and household sizes; ^[6] state-by-state employment counts and which of those states have expanded Medicaid (41 states plus DC as documented); and ^[7] household composition and incomes to map individuals to the 138% FPL threshold. The supplied materials provide the national Medicaid expansion status and enrollment trends and illustrate that many workers are eligible in principle, but they do not supply any of the employer-level wage or household data needed to calculate the share for Walmart employees specifically ^{[8] [9] [1]}.

5. Competing narratives and likely motives — policy framing versus corporate defense

Two narratives appear in the sources: one from advocacy/legislative materials that frame Walmart employment as a public-cost issue because many workers allegedly qualify for Medicaid, and the other from company materials that emphasize benefits availability without acknowledging public-program interactions. The advocacy framing likely aims to prompt public policy responses or corporate accountability measures, while corporate materials aim to limit reputational or regulatory exposure. Neither side in the supplied documents presents the hard empirical link needed to move from claim to quantified fact ^{[2] [4]}.

6. Bottom line and actionable next steps — what evidence would resolve the question

The current evidence supports the plausible hypothesis that a notable minority or larger share of retail workers could fall below 138% FPL in expansion states, but it does not provide a verifiable percentage for Walmart employees. To resolve this decisively, obtain employer-level wage and hours data (e.g., BLS Occupational Employment Statistics cross‑tabulated by employer where possible), Walmart’s internal wage distribution or SEC filings with workforce pay detail, and state-level Medicaid eligibility comparisons against household compositions; KFF and state Medicaid enrollment data would then allow a precise estimate ^{[1] [9] [8]}.