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Is Washington ranked #1 in the nation for small businesses most impacted by retail theft.
Executive Summary
Washington state is ranked #1 in the nation for small businesses most impacted by retail theft according to the Forbes Advisor Retail Theft Index and multiple news outlets that reported on that analysis, which found Washington experienced about 48% more retail theft than expected for its population, earning a top score in the metric that focuses on small businesses (up to 50 employees) [1] [2]. Reporting across local and national outlets repeats the Forbes-based finding, though dates and data windows differ: some articles cite a 2021-data baseline or studies published in late 2023 and updated coverage into 2024–2025, so the claim is supported but tied to a specific methodological snapshot rather than a continuously updated reality [3] [4] [1].
1. Why Forbes’ ranking put Washington at the top — Methodology and metric that moved the needle
Forbes Advisor’s Retail Theft Index combined state-level retail theft incident data with a small‑business survey and adjusted for population share to produce a composite score that ranked states by the degree to which small businesses are impacted; Washington received a perfect score and was identified as having roughly 48% more retail theft than expected, placing it first nationally in the metric used by Forbes [1]. That approach emphasizes relative impact on small retailers rather than absolute counts of incidents or the dollar value of goods stolen, which means the ranking favors states where theft incidents exceed what population alone would predict; outlets citing the Forbes result, including local media and retail organizations, frame Washington’s placement as tied to that composite methodology and a 2021 data baseline referenced in some reports [3] [4].
2. Independent reporting and corroboration — Multiple outlets repeat the finding with slight variations
Local news organizations and trade groups echoed the Forbes finding, reporting Washington as the most impacted state for small-business retail theft; several pieces cite the same Forbes-based analysis and quote similar figures about relative overrepresentation of theft incidents [3] [5]. Some sources and news outlets referenced the study but either could not be fully accessed or used slightly different data windows, leading to minor discrepancies in phrasing — for instance, some stories describe Washington as “worst” overall for retail theft while others specify “most impacted for small businesses,” reflecting differences in emphasis rather than contradiction [6] [7].
3. What’s included — Data years, small-business definition, and limits to generalizing the result
The ranking rests on a specific definition of “small businesses” (up to 50 employees) and a combination of 2021 incident data with survey responses; Forbes and outlets mention this temporal and definitional frame, which constrains how broadly the #1 claim can be applied to all retail theft metrics or to current conditions beyond the study period [1] [3]. Because the analysis standardizes by population share and uses a composite score, the #1 label describes relative impact within that model; it does not necessarily match other measures such as per-capita dollar losses, raw incident counts, or more recent crime trends unless those measures are recalculated with comparable methodology [7] [8].
4. Conflicting or missing data — Access issues and reporting gaps that matter
Some analyses and news pieces referencing the ranking encountered access restrictions or non-identical datasets — an Error 451 blocked access to one local report, and other aggregators summarizing the Forbes work differ on whether they could independently verify every element of the ranking [6] [8]. These access limitations and secondary summaries introduce auditability concerns: the dominant narrative depends on Forbes’ methodology and the secondary reporting that amplifies it; when original datasets or raw incident logs are unavailable or differ in timing, independent confirmation becomes harder and nuances about trend direction or recent changes can be obscured [2] [7].
5. What to take away — Supported claim with important caveats for context and use
The statement “Washington is ranked #1 in the nation for small businesses most impacted by retail theft” is supported by the Forbes Advisor Retail Theft Index and by multiple news reports that repeated that ranking, but the finding is explicitly tied to a specific composite methodology, a definition of small businesses, and a data baseline around 2021–2024; the label is accurate within that context but should not be treated as an all-purpose, permanently current fact without checking methodology and newer data [1] [3] [4]. Policymakers, business owners, and reporters using this claim should cite the underlying study, note the metric’s scope, and consider complementary measures (per‑capita losses, recent crime trends, law‑enforcement reporting) before drawing broader conclusions or policy prescriptions [2] [7].