Fact check: How will zero border crossings in May 2025 affect the US labor market?

1. Summary of the results

The analyses reveal that zero border crossings in May 2025 would likely have significant negative impacts on the US labor market, based on current economic data and trends. The US immigrant population has already declined from a record 53.3 million in January 2025 to 51.9 million by June 2025 ^[1], demonstrating the immediate effects of current immigration policies.

Economic indicators from May 2025 show mixed signals: while the US added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% ^{[2] [3]}. However, underlying weaknesses emerged, including a decrease in full-time workers and an increase in part-time workers ^[3]. The R&D sector and D.C. region showed emerging weakness according to Indeed's job posting data ^[4].

Labor force participation has already declined substantially, particularly among noncitizens ^[5], with worksite raids and legal status changes creating significant economic disruptions across industries including agriculture and construction ^[5]. Nearly one-in-five US workers are immigrants ^[1], making this demographic crucial for economic stability.

Quantitative projections indicate severe consequences: economic modeling suggests that declining immigration could reduce GDP growth by 0.75 to 1 percentage point below benchmark scenarios, while increasing inflation by 0.15 to 0.21 percentage points ^[6].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question assumes zero border crossings occurred in May 2025, but border enforcement data shows record-low encounters in July 2025, not necessarily zero crossings ^[7]. This distinction is crucial as it suggests the premise may be hypothetical rather than factual.

Industries most affected by immigration restrictions include agriculture, construction, and service sectors ^[5], but the analyses don't fully explore how different sectors might adapt through automation, wage increases, or alternative labor sources.

Employers in labor-intensive industries would benefit from maintaining current immigration levels to preserve lower labor costs, while workers in competing sectors might benefit from reduced labor competition leading to higher wages. Immigration enforcement agencies and private detention companies financially benefit from stricter border policies ^{[5] [7]}.

The analyses focus primarily on economic costs but don't address potential benefits that immigration restrictionists might cite, such as reduced strain on public services or increased wages for native-born workers in certain sectors.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The question contains a factual assumption that may be incorrect: it presupposes that zero border crossings actually occurred in May 2025. Border enforcement data indicates record-low encounters but not zero crossings ^[7], suggesting the premise may be exaggerated or hypothetical.

The framing implies a direct causal relationship between border crossings and immediate labor market effects, but economic impacts typically manifest over longer periods and involve complex interactions between legal and unauthorized immigration, workforce participation, and economic demand ^{[8] [6]}.

The question focuses solely on border crossings while ignoring other immigration pathways such as visa overstays, legal immigration changes, and deportations of existing residents, which have already significantly impacted the labor force ^{[1] [5]}. This narrow focus could mislead readers about the full scope of immigration's economic impact.