Fact check: How does Baltimore's murder rate compare to Chicago's in 2025?

Executive summary — Quick answer to the comparison

Baltimore’s murder rate in 2025 remains higher than Chicago’s by several commonly cited measures, though both cities report year-over-year declines in homicides in 2025. Available summaries show Baltimore with substantially higher violent-crime levels and murder rates relative to Chicago, while both jurisdictions report significant reductions in shootings and homicides during 2025 ^{[1] [2] [3]}. The comparison is constrained by differing reporting windows and metrics in the sources, so absolute per-capita numbers and standardized year-to-date windows are not uniformly provided across the materials reviewed ^{[4] [5]}.

1. What proponents of the claim assert — Baltimore is worse than Chicago

Analyses provided assert that Baltimore’s overall violent-crime and murder burden exceed Chicago’s in 2025, with one source stating Chicago has 36% less violent crime and 32% less property crime than Baltimore, implying a markedly higher per-capita incidence of serious crimes in Baltimore ^[1]. Local messaging and briefings from Baltimore officials confirm substantial declines in homicides in 2025 — a 30.4% drop in homicides and a 20.8% decline in non-fatal shootings year-over-year — yet these improvements are portrayed against an underlying baseline that remains higher than Chicago’s recent totals ^[2]. The framing in city and comparative write-ups emphasizes relative severity, not parity ^[4].

2. What proponents of Chicago’s improvement report — historic declines under new strategies

Chicago reporting for 2025 highlights historic declines in homicides, with one fact sheet citing a 32.3% reduction in homicides and broad historic declines in violent crime under Mayor Brandon Johnson’s administration, indicating Chicago’s violent-crime trajectory improved sharply during 2025 ^[3]. That source does not provide raw per-capita homicide rates or direct cross-city rates versus Baltimore, but it documents meaningful year-to-date percentage declines that reduce Chicago’s homicide burden compared with prior years ^[3]. This narrative supports the view that Chicago’s 2025 trend is strongly downward even if absolute intercity differences persist.

3. Direct comparisons and the headline percentages — how they were summarized

The direct comparative statement that Chicago has 36% less violent crime and 32% less property crime than Baltimore in 2025 originates in a comparative summary and is presented as a headline metric ^[1]. Other pieces do not replicate the same cross-city numeric ratio; instead they present city-specific year-over-year drops or policy brief context without standardized cross-comparison ^{[2] [3]}. The available materials therefore mix different metrics — percentage declines, cross-sectional comparisons, and administrative briefings — which can lead to apparent inconsistency unless standardized to per-capita annualized homicide rates. This mixed evidence base limits precise numeric head-to-head claims absent a single consistent dataset ^{[4] [5]}.

4. Key methodological gaps and what’s missing from the sources

None of the presented sources supply a single, standardized per-100,000-residents homicide rate for both Baltimore and Chicago for the full 2025 calendar year; instead they use year-to-date percentage changes, city press briefings, and comparative summaries that do not align on timeframes or denominators ^{[2] [3] [1]}. This means the most robust cross-city comparison — an annualized homicides-per-100,000 calculation using identical periods — is not available in these items. Observers should note potential differences in reporting cutoffs, inclusion of nonfatal shootings, and whether counts are incident- or victim-based when interpreting the cited percentage differences ^{[4] [5]}.

5. Alternative viewpoints and potential agendas behind the numbers

City fact sheets and mayoral announcements highlight positive trajectories and can be used by officials to demonstrate policy success; Baltimore’s mayoral release emphasizes declines in homicides, while Chicago’s municipal fact sheet frames historic decreases under its current administration ^{[2] [3]}. Comparative summaries that show Baltimore worse than Chicago can be used to push for federal attention or local reforms, and politicized commentary may amplify one metric over others. Readers should treat each source as having an institutional interest — city governments and advocacy-oriented summaries may selectively highlight favorable statistics or timeframes ^[4].

6. Bottom line for readers seeking a firm comparison

Based on the materials reviewed, Baltimore had a higher murder/violent-crime burden than Chicago in 2025 as presented in the comparative summary, even as both cities reported notable declines in homicides that year ^{[1] [2] [3]}. However, the absence of standardized per-capita annual rates and uniform timeframes across these sources prevents a single definitive numeric ratio from being produced here. For a precise, auditable comparison, obtain the cities’ official homicide counts and population denominators for the same 12-month period or consult national crime datasets standardized by jurisdiction.

7. Practical next steps for verification if you want absolute numbers

To verify an exact head-to-head murder-rate figure, retrieve each city’s confirmed homicide totals for the identical 12-month period in 2025 and divide by that city’s 2025 population to compute homicides per 100,000 residents; this resolves the main methodological gaps evident in the reviewed sources ^{[4] [5]}. If you’d like, I can assemble those standardized per-capita rates from municipal or FBI open-data repositories and produce an auditable side-by-side comparison with citations and calculation steps.