Fact check: How does Baltimore's murder rate compare to other major US cities in 2025?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available analyses, Baltimore has experienced a dramatic reduction in its murder rate during 2025, with multiple sources confirming significant decreases. The Baltimore Police Department reported a 22% decrease in homicides, with 68 homicides in 2025 compared to 88 in 2024 ^[1]. Mayor Brandon Scott's office reported an even more substantial 24.3% decrease, with 84 homicides in 2025, representing the fewest in over 50 years ^[2].

Most significantly, the Council on Criminal Justice provides crucial comparative context, reporting that Baltimore experienced a 56% decrease in homicide rates from the first half of 2019 to the first half of 2025 ^[3]. This same source indicates that nationally, U.S. cities saw a 17% decrease in homicide rates, suggesting Baltimore's improvement significantly outpaces the national trend.

The city attributes this success to its comprehensive violence prevention plan and Group Violence Reduction Strategy, which takes a holistic approach to crime reduction ^[4]. These initiatives appear to have been particularly effective in addressing gun violence across the city.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal several critical gaps in providing a complete comparative picture:

• No direct murder rate comparisons with other major cities like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, or Philadelphia are provided in the available data
• While one source mentions that Chicago's violent crime rate is lower than New York and Los Angeles and that Chicago doesn't rank in the top 25 most dangerous U.S. cities ^[5], this doesn't establish Baltimore's relative position
• Historical context beyond 2019 is limited - we don't know how Baltimore's current rates compare to its peak violence years or long-term trends
• Population-adjusted murder rates (murders per 100,000 residents) are not provided, which would be essential for accurate city-to-city comparisons
• The analyses don't address whether Baltimore's improvement is sustainable or represents a temporary trend

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself doesn't contain misinformation, as it's simply asking for comparative data. However, the lack of comprehensive comparative data in the available sources means any definitive ranking of Baltimore against other major cities would be premature.

Political figures and law enforcement officials who benefit from highlighting crime reduction success stories include Mayor Brandon Scott and Baltimore Police Department leadership, who have clear incentives to emphasize positive crime statistics ^{[2] [1]}. The timing and framing of these reports - emphasizing "fewest in over 50 years" and significant percentage decreases - suggests these statistics are being used to demonstrate policy effectiveness.

The analyses also reference broader political implications, with one source fact-checking President Trump's claims about Washington D.C.'s homicide rate ^[6], indicating that crime statistics are frequently used in political discourse and may be subject to selective presentation or misinterpretation.