How have cartel tactics (drones, tunnels, maritime routes, coyotes) evolved regionally since 2020?
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Executive summary
Cartel tactics since 2020 have become more militarised and technologically sophisticated: weaponised drones moved from reconnaissance to explosive attacks (documented CJNG attempts in 2020 and a large uptick through 2023–25), and tunnel and maritime smuggling operations remained complex and globally reaching, including narco‑submersibles and long cross‑border tunnels (CJNG drone use noted 25 July 2020; SEDENA reported 260 drone attacks in first half of 2023) [1] [2]. Regional differences are clear: Mexico shows rapid drone weaponisation and tunnel sophistication, Colombia and the Caribbean show growing maritime and narco‑submarine innovation, and U.S. border areas see concentrated tunnel discoveries and a surge in cartel drone flights near the border [1] [3] [4] [5].
1. Mexico: From recon drones and bunkers to airborne IEDs
Since 2020 Mexican cartels broadened drone roles from surveillance and smuggling to armed attack. Researchers recorded CJNG attempted C4‑laden drone strikes in July 2020 and Mexican authorities seized drones and explosives in multiple operations that year [1]. The pattern accelerated: SEDENA reported hundreds of drone attacks through 2023 and analysts documented cartel drone squads and dedicated operators by 2024–25 [2] [6]. At the same time cartels developed subterranean infrastructure such as underground bunkers and multi‑kilometre tunnels for logistics and force protection, illustrating simultaneous investment above and below ground [7] [8].
2. Regional contrast: Mexico’s air tactics vs. Caribbean and Pacific maritime shifts
Cartel tactical evolution varies by geography. On land in Mexico the main innovation is aerial — weaponised quadcopters, FPV attack drones and electronic countermeasures — while maritime routes through the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean show renewed emphasis on long‑range sea logistics, narco‑submersibles and shifting routes to Europe and beyond [2] [3] [9]. Insight Crime and policy analysts trace the rise of transoceanic narco‑subs with seizures spiking in 2024–25, signalling an expansion of maritime capability and destination diversity beyond historical U.S. routes [3].
3. Technology transfer and global learning
Open‑source and reporting point to cross‑pollination between conflict zones and criminal groups: analysts and reporters argue cartel operators have adopted FPV and combat drone tactics modelled on Ukraine’s battlefield use, accelerating precision one‑way attack drones by 2024–25 [10] [11]. Small wars and defence reporting document how cartels institutionalised drone units and acquired counter‑UAS tools—turning asymmetric aerial tools into force multipliers [12] [13].
4. Tunnels: Enduring engineering, shifting purpose
Tunnels remain a durable tactic. High‑investment, engineered cross‑border tunnels—complete with rails, ventilation and electrics—were discovered in 2020 and continued to appear in U.S. border regions through 2024–25, indicating cartels still prize subterranean logistics where geography and enforcement allow [14] [5] [15]. Simultaneously Mexican forces uncovered underground bunkers used for command and control, showing tunnels now serve both smuggling and protection/military functions [7] [8].
5. Coyotes and human‑smuggling adaptation
Available sources document tunnels and drone‑guidance for smuggling and note cartels expanded into human trafficking and related markets, but detailed, sourced trendlines on how coyotes’ tactics have evolved regionally since 2020 are limited in this collection. The academic and policy pieces emphasize diversification of cartel portfolios—extortion, kidnapping and human trafficking—but do not map precise operational changes in coyote trade over 2020–25 in the provided reporting [16] [17].
6. Law enforcement and geopolitical reactions
U.S. and regional security responses adapted: U.S. authorities reported thousands of cartel drone flights near the southern border in late 2024 and the Pentagon deployed counter‑drone assets; meanwhile, U.S. strikes and maritime operations against trafficking vessels escalated in 2025, reflecting a securitised shift in response to evolving cartel tactics [4] [18] [19]. Analysts warn these reactions change the operational environment and may further push cartels toward more clandestine or militarised means [2] [20].
7. Takeaway: convergence of military methods and criminal logistics
The dominant trend is convergence: cartels no longer only smuggle; they borrow insurgent and battlefield practices—drone weaponisation, FPV attacks, IEDs, fortified bunkers, narco‑subs and high‑end tunnels—to protect routes, intimidate rivals and challenge state actors. Sources highlight accelerating change since 2020 but also note gaps in public data on exact casualty totals, training linkages, and the full geographic spread of new tactics [17] [11] [2].
Limitations and contested points
Open questions remain in the sources: claims that cartel operatives trained in Ukraine or that specific cartels pioneered some FPV attacks are reported by analysts and media but not uniformly confirmed by governments in the provided material; detailed numbers on tunnel use, migrant smuggling tactics, and the full scale of drone attacks vary across reports [10] [11] [15]. Available sources do not mention granular changes to coyotes’ tradecraft since 2020 beyond general diversification [16].
Bottom line: since 2020 cartels have layered sophisticated aerial attack and surveillance capabilities over established subterranean and maritime logistics; the regional flavour differs—Mexican cartels lead on drone weaponisation while maritime innovations and narco‑subs reshape Atlantic and Pacific routes—and governments are racing to catch up [1] [3] [2].