What was Chicago's total number of homicides and homicide rate per 100,000 in 2025?
Executive summary
Chicago recorded 416 homicides in 2025 according to multiple city and local media tallies, a sharp year‑over‑year decline that city officials and analysts flagged as the lowest in decades . That count translates to roughly a 14.6 homicides per 100,000 residents for 2025 in the University of Chicago Crime Lab’s calculation — a figure widely cited in local reporting — though alternative rate calculations and mid‑year snapshots produced different per‑capita estimates .
1. The headline numbers: total homicides and the commonly cited rate
Preliminary tallies reported at year‑end show Chicago had 416 people slain in 2025, a 29% drop from 2024 and the fewest murders in the city in about 60 years per Block Club Chicago and the Chicago Tribune’s year‑end accounting . The University of Chicago Crime Lab’s analysis — which circulated in local coverage and was quoted by WTTW — put the city’s 2025 homicide rate at 14.6 per 100,000 residents, a dramatic decline from recent peaks and the figure most often used in summaries of 2025’s violence reduction .
2. Why different sources report different rates
Different outlets produced divergent per‑capita numbers because they used varying date ranges, inclusions/exclusions (such as justifiable homicides or manslaughter), and population denominators; for example, some year‑to‑date mid‑2025 snapshots cited rates that looked much lower (CCJ’s six‑month rate reported as about 7 per 100,000 through June) while other commentators over the year referenced higher baseline comparisons or neighborhood averages that boosted citywide figures [1] . National and local comparisons also shift depending on whether reporters use midyear population estimates, Census adjustments, or exclude certain categories of death — each choice meaningfully alters the per‑100,000 calculation .
3. Context: the decline was broad but uneven
City and independent analyses emphasized that 2025’s reductions were citywide but not uniform: most police districts saw declines in gun violence and homicides, and the city reported large year‑to‑date drops in shootings and other violent crimes alongside the homicide decline . At the same time, neighborhood‑level statistics remained starkly unequal; recent reporting highlighted communities where per‑capita homicide rates stayed far above the city average, underscoring that aggregate gains can mask concentrated harms .
4. How reliable are the 416 / 14.6 figures? Caveats and alternative readings
The 416 homicide count and 14.6 per‑100,000 rate are based on preliminary city/Crime Lab compilations reported by major local outlets; they reflect final‑quarter drops and the Crime Lab’s methodology but are subject to revision and to differences in how agencies classify homicides . Independent trackers and advocacy groups produced other numbers during 2025: CCJ highlighted a very low six‑month rate in their midyear update, and some outlets cited higher annual rates depending on whether certain deaths were included — all reminders that single headline metrics can obscure methodological choices [1].
5. The political and reporting frame around the numbers
The 2025 decline became a political touchpoint: city officials and the mayor’s office framed the drop as validation of local strategies and a turnaround from prior years, while national figures and political opponents had previously used older, higher rates to argue for federal intervention . Fact‑checking outlets also noted the difficulty of direct city‑to‑city comparisons because of timing and classification differences, cautioning that some political claims overstated or selectively used partial‑year figures .