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Did Chicago record 4000 murders in 2024 or another year?
Executive Summary
Chicago did not record 4,000 murders in 2024 or in any recent year; multiple contemporary data points and reporting show fewer than 600 homicides in 2024 and substantial declines in 2025, making the 4,000 figure demonstrably false. Statements that Chicago “has had the most murders of any U.S. city for 13 consecutive years” appear in official communications, but experts warn that absolute homicide counts and political framing can mislead because larger cities naturally have higher totals than smaller cities with worse per-capita rates [1] [2] [3].
1. What people claimed and why the 4,000 number surfaced — sorting competing claims
The core claim under review is straightforward: that Chicago recorded 4,000 murders in 2024 or another recent year. That number does not appear in the factual record provided by the city, local reporting, or federal compilations; instead, the claim seems to have arisen from either a misreading of aggregated crime statistics or political rhetoric emphasizing Chicago’s absolute homicide totals. The White House and political statements have highlighted that Chicago recorded the highest number of murders among large U.S. cities for an extended period, a separate factual claim from a single-year 4,000 tally [2] [4]. The analyses show that while Chicago’s homicide burden is historically high relative to many large cities, the magnitude reported by the 4,000 figure is unsupported by available city and media counts [1] [3].
2. What the contemporaneous data actually reports — city, media, and federal snapshots
Contemporary sources and city releases document a very different scale: reporting from Chicago outlets and the mayor’s office shows Chicago had fewer than 600 murders in 2024, with specific counts reported in the 460–591 range depending on agency definitions and whether FBI or local counts are used. The mayor’s office and Chicago Police Department noted declines in homicides and shootings in the first half of 2025 compared with 2024, and local coverage summarized the 2024 total as under 600 homicides—the lowest since 2019 [5] [3] [1]. These figures are orders of magnitude smaller than 4,000 and are consistent across municipal reports and local journalism cited in the analyses.
3. Historical context and why 4,000 would be extraordinary and implausible
Historical homicide data for Chicago shows peaks in the 1990s around the high hundreds per year, not thousands. Analysts and municipal statements emphasize that homicides have fallen substantially from those earlier peaks, with the recent years’ totals in the mid-hundreds. A claim of 4,000 murders in a single year would be an unprecedented spike—never reflected in Chicago’s modern crime records—and would contradict multiple contemporaneous sources documenting declines and lower totals for 2024 and early 2025 [5] [3] [1]. Given the consistency of municipal figures and independent reporting, the 4,000 figure lacks any corroborating evidence in the reviewed material.
4. Why experts caution against focusing only on absolute counts — rates, size, and context matter
Experts and fact-check analyses cited in the materials stress that comparing cities by absolute homicide counts misleads because larger cities naturally register more incidents even at lower per-capita rates. The White House and other communicators have relied on absolute counts to make political points about Chicago, but independent analysts underline that per-capita homicide rates can tell a different story—some smaller cities have far higher rates despite lower totals. The analyses point to the need for both metrics: absolute counts illustrate total victims, while rates reveal relative risk to residents; both are necessary for accurate interpretation [2].
5. Bottom line, uncertainties, and where to look next for verification
The claim that Chicago recorded 4,000 murders in 2024 or any recent year is false based on the supplied contemporaneous materials; official city reporting and local journalism document under 600 homicides in 2024, with declines continuing into 2025. Discrepancies across sources mostly reflect different counting methods (local police vs. FBI categorization) and reporting cutoffs, not anywhere near a 4,000-level error [3] [5] [1]. For independent verification, consult Chicago Police Department tallies, the City of Chicago’s public dashboards, the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting summaries, and contemporaneous local news reporting; these consistently refute the 4,000 claim and provide the most reliable, up-to-date counts referenced in the analyses [1] [2].