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How does Chicago's homicide rate compare to other major cities like New York and Los Angeles in 2024?
Executive Summary
Chicago recorded one of the highest total homicide counts and the highest homicide rate among the nation’s large cities in 2024, with Wirepoints reporting 573 murders and a rate of about 21.5 per 100,000 residents, substantially higher than reported rates for New York and Los Angeles [1] [2]. Other datasets covering smaller groups of cities show variation—one 24-city study placed Chicago’s 2024 rate at 21.7 per 100,000 and ranked it eighth among that set, while New York’s rate remained low (around 4.6–4.7 per 100,000) and Los Angeles produced a lower rate near 7.1 per 100,000—illustrating that Chicago’s homicide problem is large in both absolute and per-capita terms compared with those peers [3] [4]. These figures underscore a clear gap between Chicago and the two largest U.S. cities, but the size of that gap depends on the city sample and methodology used [2] [3].
1. The headline numbers that drive the “homicide capital” label
Wirepoints’ 2024 survey of the 75 largest U.S. cities is the clearest source asserting Chicago’s top position: 573 homicides and a rate of 21.5 per 100,000, which the report says is three times Los Angeles’ level and nearly five times New York’s [1] [2]. That same Wirepoints dataset shows New York with 377 murders and Los Angeles with 259 murders in raw counts, but per-capita rates shift the narrative: St. Louis tops per-capita with 52.9 per 100,000, while Chicago’s 21.5 sits well above New York and Los Angeles [2]. The Wirepoints framing emphasizes Chicago’s persistent position atop these rankings for more than a decade and treats both raw counts and per-capita rates as central to the claim [1].
2. Alternative datasets produce differences but the gap persists
A separate 24-city study published for 2024 shows Chicago’s rate at 21.7 per 100,000, with Chicago ranked eighth among that subset; New York’s rate of roughly 4.7 per 100,000 remained near the bottom of that list and Los Angeles’ rate of 7.1 per 100,000 ranked lower than Chicago’s [3]. These alternate figures confirm the directional finding—Chicago’s homicide rate is materially higher than New York’s and higher than Los Angeles’—yet the ranking position and exact multiples depend on which cities are compared, population estimates, and whether the analysis focuses on raw counts or rates [3] [4]. That variation explains why different outlets or studies sometimes describe Chicago as the nation’s worst for homicides while others place it lower on narrower city lists.
3. Year-over-year trends: declines, rises, and uneven progress across cities
Chicago experienced a modest decline in homicides in some analyses—Wirepoints reported an 8% decrease in 2024 and a Crime Lab analysis found a 7.3% decrease in homicides and a 3.7% decrease in non-fatal shootings, signaling movement off pandemic-era peaks [2] [5]. By contrast, the 24-city study recorded a 16% increase in Chicago’s homicide rate from 2023 to 2024, illustrating how different time windows and denominators change the narrative [3]. Los Angeles reported meaningful decreases—LAPD data pointed to a 14% drop in homicides in 2024—and New York’s per-capita homicide rate remained low despite fluctuations, reinforcing that trends differ by city and that single-year changes can pull rankings in either direction [6] [4].
4. Contextual factors and cautions that shape comparisons
Comparing cities requires attention to population bases, city boundary definitions, data collection choices, and the mix of neighborhoods affected, all of which skew per-capita and raw-count comparisons; Wirepoints uses the 75 largest cities, one study used 24, and local police departments have different reporting practices [2] [3] [7]. Geographic concentration matters: Chicago’s violence is concentrated in specific neighborhoods and exhibits stark racial and spatial disparities that complicate citywide per-capita comparisons, a dynamic noted in academic Crime Lab analysis [5]. Analysts and political actors also bring agendas—advocacy groups or municipal critics can emphasize raw totals or rates to support calls for policy change—so the data must be read with an eye to methodology and motive [1] [2].
5. What the numbers imply for public understanding and policy debates
The convergent finding across datasets is that Chicago’s homicide burden in 2024 was substantially higher than New York’s and higher than Los Angeles’ on a per-capita basis, though the exact multiples vary by study and sample [1] [3]. This gap fuels policy debates over policing, community investment, criminal justice reform, and public safety strategies; proponents of different approaches point to the same numbers to argue for either stricter enforcement or system reforms [1] [6]. Readers should treat any single headline as part of a larger mosaic—consult city-level reports, understand per-capita versus raw counts, and note that year-to-year shifts can change rankings even as the underlying disparities remain clear [2] [5].