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Fact check: How does Chicago's murder rate compare to other major US cities in 2025?
Executive Summary
Chicago’s homicide rate in recent federal reporting was about 17.5 murders per 100,000 people for 2024, placing it below several smaller Rust Belt and Southern cities but above many large cities; mid‑2025 data show a substantial year‑over‑year decline in Chicago homicides (around 32–33% through midyear) that could put the city on track for its lowest annual count since 2019 [1] [2] [3] [4]. Comparisons depend heavily on the timeframe, dataset, and whether one uses rate per capita or simple counts, and national trends show declines in many big cities through early 2025 [5] [6].
1. What advocates and press reported as the main claims — a clear inventory
Reporting and public statements distilled into three key claims: first, the FBI’s 2024 figures show Chicago’s homicide rate at about 17.5 per 100,000, which is lower than the highest‑rate cities like Detroit, Memphis and St. Louis [1] [2]. Second, city and local news outlets reported a ~32–33% drop in homicides through mid‑2025, with July data indicating roughly 240 homicides through July or 192 in the first six months depending on the source [3] [4]. Third, multiple analyses show national declines in homicides in early 2025, complicating year‑to‑year city comparisons [5] [6]. All three claims are present in the record but rely on different measures and time cuts.
2. How Chicago’s 2024 standing compares when you use per‑capita rates versus counts
The FBI‑rooted summary for 2024 puts Chicago’s murder rate near 17.5 per 100,000, which is lower than the worst‑rate cities such as St. Louis (much higher) or Memphis, but higher than many large metros like New York City and Los Angeles on a per‑capita basis [1] [7] [2]. Per‑capita rates moderate the picture because smaller cities with fewer residents can register very high rates from fewer incidents, while large cities may register more total homicides but lower rates per 100,000. The selection of comparator cities changes the headline conclusion significantly [1] [2].
3. The 2025 midyear decline in Chicago: data, magnitude, and municipal claims
Local official tallies and city releases in 2025 document a roughly one‑third decline in homicides and sizable drops in shootings through the first half of the year, with the City of Chicago highlighting a 33% homicide reduction and a 38% reduction in shootings and attributing gains to a mix of policing, detectives, youth jobs and community programs [8] [3]. Independent local reporting echoed a similar 33% drop for the first six months, though numerical totals differ slightly between agency and outlet counts [4]. These midyear improvements are clear in municipal and media data but represent partial‑year trends.
4. How Chicago’s 2025 performance compares to other big cities in 2025
National snapshots for early 2025 show broader declines in homicides across many major cities, with New York and Los Angeles on pace for historically low annual counts and a Council on Criminal Justice summary showing a 17% drop in homicides across 30 cities in the first half of 2025 [5] [3]. Conversely, some midsize metros like Colorado Springs and Charlotte showed increases in some reporting, and the highest 2024 rates remained concentrated in smaller cities such as St. Louis and Jackson [6] [2]. So Chicago’s midyear drop is consistent with national trends, not uniquely exceptional or an outlier.
5. Data limitations, timing effects, and source biases you must weigh
Available datasets differ by scope, period and methodology: FBI annual compilations cover calendar years and generate per‑100,000 rates but lag in publication [1] [2], while city and local media provide near‑real‑time counts with differing cutoffs and classification rules [3] [4] [8]. Analysts and political actors selectively cite per‑capita rates or raw counts to support narratives; small‑city rate volatility and midyear seasonality can skew comparisons. Treat all sources as partial and framed; combining federal, municipal and independent trackers gives the most balanced picture [7] [8].
6. The political narratives around “danger” and what’s often omitted
Claims that Chicago is the “most dangerous” city rely on selective comparisons and usually ignore per‑capita context, year‑to‑date improvements, and regional differences; commentators who emphasize declining mid‑2025 figures tend to highlight local interventions, while critics pointing to 2024 rates emphasize historical trends [2] [8]. Several analyses also note partisan framing—cities with high 2024 rates are in Republican‑led states in one report—an observation that can be used to advance political arguments even though the causal story is complex [2]. Understanding motives behind claims helps interpret the statistics.
7. Bottom line and what to watch for a definitive comparison through 2025
The most defensible short answer: Chicago’s 2024 homicide rate (~17.5/100,000) placed it below the worst‑rate smaller cities but above many large metros, and early‑to‑mid‑2025 data show a substantial decline that could lower its annual total significantly [1] [3] [8]. Final 2025 FBI and Council on Criminal Justice annualized reports, reconciled city counts, and cross‑city per‑capita updates are the next milestones to settle year‑end rankings; watch for methodological footnotes and midyear volatility before drawing sweeping conclusions [5] [6].