Fact check: How does Chicago's homicide rate compare to New York City's in 2025?

1. What advocates and officials are claiming — Chicago says violent crime is falling

Chicago municipal releases and aggregated crime summaries emphasize marked reductions in homicides and shootings in 2025, with the Mayor’s office and city crime pages citing a 32% decrease in homicides and a 37% reduction in shooting incidents through the first half of 2025, and reporting about 240 homicides through July that put Chicago on track for its lowest annual toll since 2019 ^{[1] [2]}. Those data points are presented as evidence of meaningful improvement in the city’s violence profile and frame 2025 as a year of progress. Independent trackers and city‑level updates repeat those headline declines, though some later local reporting records higher running counts at different cutoffs—illustrating how timing and cut‑off dates shape the impression of progress ^[5].

2. What the supplied sources say about New York City — partial picture, not the whole city

The materials include references to declines in Manhattan’s murders and shootings in 2025, with one source reporting Manhattan experienced a 46% drop in murders and a 43% reduction in shootings in the first half of the year, but those figures are limited to Manhattan rather than the five boroughs that make up New York City ^[3]. The dataset supplied does not include an authoritative, citywide New York City homicide count or rate for 2025, which prevents a like‑for‑like comparison by raw counts or per‑capita rates. Because Manhattan is only a portion of the city’s population and crime geography, Manhattan’s trends cannot be extrapolated to represent New York City as a whole without additional borough‑level data ^[3].

3. Why raw counts and rates tell different stories — population matters

Analysts stress that raw homicide counts and homicide rates per 100,000 residents can produce different rankings: Chicago has led large cities in raw homicides in some recent years but not necessarily in per‑capita homicide rates, and other less populous cities can have higher rates despite fewer total victims ^[6]. The supplied materials emphasize the importance of using a rate that adjusts for population size when comparing cities like Chicago and New York City. The absence of New York City’s 2025 homicide rate in the sourced packet means we cannot compute or cite a reliable per‑capita comparison for 2025; therefore, any statement claiming one city is “more violent” than the other on a rate basis would be unsupported by the provided evidence ^{[6] [4]}.

4. Conflicting counts and reporting cutoffs — a caution about timelines

Local counts change as reporting cutoffs move; one source notes 353 homicides “so far in 2025” at a later date, while others show lower mid‑year totals like 240 through July, reflecting differing update cycles, definitions, or story framing ^{[5] [1]}. The packet includes city statements, news summaries, and mid‑year trend briefs that overlap but are not synchronized to the same reporting window. That variability means headline percentage decreases can coexist with higher running totals depending on the date used. For any rigorous comparison between Chicago and New York City in 2025, a consistent time window and definition (citywide counts, same cut‑off date, and population denominators) are essential, but are missing from the supplied materials ^{[2] [5]}.

5. Bottom line — progress noted in Chicago but no direct NYC comparison available

The supplied sources establish that Chicago showed substantial homicide reductions in early to mid‑2025 and reported figures placing it on pace for a better year than recent years, but they do not provide the necessary, citywide New York City 2025 homicide count or rate to make a definitive comparison ^{[1] [2] [3]}. To resolve the question conclusively, one needs a citywide 2025 homicide count or rate for New York City and matching population‑adjusted rates for both cities through the same cut‑off date; absent that, the only supported conclusion is that Chicago improved in 2025 while New York City (Manhattan) also saw declines, but no apples‑to‑apples citywide comparison is available in the supplied evidence ^{[4] [3]}.