What share of cocaine entering the United States comes directly from Colombia vs. trans‑shipped through Caribbean routes in 2024–2025?
Executive summary
Available reporting makes clear that most cocaine consumed in the United States originates in Andean producers — principally Colombia (with Peru and Bolivia playing roles) — but traffickers use a shifting mix of departure and trans‑shipment corridors; contemporary evidence from 2023–2025 points to a decline in traditional Caribbean straight‑line shipments and a relative rise in Pacific, Venezuelan and Guyana/Suriname transit routes, though no source in the reporting corpus provides a precise percentage split between direct Colombia→U.S. shipments and Caribbean trans‑shipment for 2024–2025 [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. The question being asked and why the data is thin
The user asks for a share — a quantitative split — of cocaine entering the U.S. “directly from Colombia” versus “trans‑shipped through Caribbean routes” in 2024–2025, but authoritative public reporting and government releases cited here do not publish a definitive percentage breakdown for that period; UNODC and U.S. agencies map routes and list major transit countries and seizures but present flows as route patterns and seizure events rather than an exact market share by corridor [2] [5] [6].
2. What the sources do agree on about origins and dominant flows
All sources agree that Colombia remains a principal origin for global cocaine supplies, underpinning the bulk of product that eventually reaches North American markets, and UNODC mapping for 2020–2023 shows Colombia (and neighboring Andean producers) as main departure or transit points in reported seizures, which implies Colombia’s centrality to U.S. supply chains even as routes shift [1] [2].
3. How routing shifted in 2023–2025 — Caribbean vs alternatives
Detailed reporting and seizure tallies from 2023–2025 indicate a notable shift away from aerial and some Caribbean routes toward maritime corridors — especially Pacific coastal routes and increasingly through Venezuelan, Guyanese and Surinamese maritime corridors — and country reports cite record maritime seizures and novel hubs, undermining the narrative that the Caribbean remains the dominant conduit for U.S.‑bound cocaine in that window [6] [3] [4]. El País reports Colombian naval data showing fewer major Caribbean seizures and growing Pacific activity, while U.S. Treasury and State Department sanctions and press releases highlight trafficking networks using Guyana/Suriname and Venezuela as transit points [3] [4] [7].
4. What that means for “direct from Colombia” vs “trans‑shipped through the Caribbean” shares
Because the underlying intelligence is fragmentary and presented as seizures and route maps rather than volumetric accounting, the sources cannot support a precise numeric split; the best defensible conclusion from the material is qualitative: a large portion of U.S. cocaine originates in Colombia (and neighboring producers) but an increasing share moves to consumers via non‑Caribbean maritime channels and via Venezuelan/Guyanese trans‑shipment, meaning Caribbean trans‑shipment in 2024–2025 represents a meaningful but not majority‑dominant portion compared with Pacific and northern South America routes [2] [6] [4] [8].
5. Caveats, competing narratives, and where to go next
Official U.S. statements and media narratives sometimes emphasize particular corridors to justify policy actions (e.g., strikes or designations), so route emphasis can reflect operational or political priorities rather than a neutral census of tonnage; INL/UNODC maps and independent analysts (InSight Crime, Crisis Group) provide a more measured view of shifting modality but still stop short of corridor‑share percentages, so researchers seeking a hard number will need access to classified interdiction and intelligence aggregates or UNODC quantitative annexes that are not present in the supplied reporting [7] [6] [9] [2].