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Fact check: What type of rifle is commonly used in similar crimes?
Executive Summary
The available analyses converge on a clear distinction: handguns are the most common firearms in general gun crime and in most mass shootings by frequency, while AR-15–style and other semiautomatic rifles feature prominently in the deadliest incidents. Studies and data summaries differ on exact shares—ranging from handguns causing the majority of incidents to rifles appearing in a disproportionate number of high-casualty events—so any single statement about “the type of rifle commonly used” must separate frequency of use from lethality and public attention [1] [2] [3].
1. Why people ask “what rifle?” — The lesson from headline events
Public attention to rifle types arises because certain semiautomatic rifles, notably AR-15–style weapons, have been used in several of the deadliest U.S. mass shootings, creating a strong association between those models and high-casualty events. The data summaries note specific incidents—Uvalde and Buffalo—as examples where AR-15–style rifles were the weapon used, and analysts emphasize that such rifles appear disproportionately in the most lethal episodes even when they are not the most frequent weapon overall [4] [5]. This pattern explains why investigators and reporters often focus on identifying whether an AR-15 or AK-variant was involved: these platforms are linked with maximum casualties in a subset of attacks, which in turn shapes policy debates and public perception [3].
2. What the aggregate data say about weapon types in shootings
Aggregate studies show handguns dominate both general criminal shootings and the majority of mass shooting incidents by count, while rifles account for a smaller share but a larger share of deadliest incidents. One dataset covering mass shootings from 1982 through September 2024 reports handguns in roughly 78 percent of events, while semi-automatic rifles appear in a smaller number of events but in four of the five deadliest shootings [2]. Another study of 102 mass shooting incidents found pistols to be most common, followed by rifles and shotguns, and highlighted cartridge-caliber findings useful to forensic identification [6]. These findings indicate frequency and fatality impact are distinct metrics and must be stated separately.
3. How much do “assault weapons” contribute to overall gun crime?
Analyses that examine the role of assault-style rifles in broader crime emphasize that these weapons represent a minority share of guns used in crime overall. One review estimated assault weapons account for roughly 2–12 percent of criminal gun use, with most credible estimates below 7 percent, and stressed that most gun crimes involve handguns [7]. Complementary statistical accounts of murder weapon types in historical datasets show firearms—and specifically handguns—are central to most lethal violence statistics, underlining that policy choices focused solely on rifle types address only part of the overall gun-violence picture [1].
4. Conflicting emphases: frequency versus lethality and constitutional framing
Observers diverge depending on whether they emphasize frequency (how often a weapon type is used) or lethality (how deadly its use tends to be). Advocacy and reporting stressing bans or restrictions point to the deadliest events—often involving AR-style rifles—to argue for targeting particular platforms [5]. Defenders of broader gun rights emphasize that many “assault weapon” features are present in commonly used defensive arms and invoke constitutional protections for weapons deemed in common use, framing restrictions as infringing on lawful ownership [8]. Both viewpoints rely on the same datasets but prioritize different metrics: count of incidents versus severity per incident.
5. What this means for investigators, policymakers, and the public
For investigators, quick identification benefits from forensic links between cartridge evidence and firearm types as documented in incident-level studies, helping determine whether a rifle or handgun was used [6]. For policymakers, the evidence supports targeted responses that recognize handguns account for most gun crimes, while also acknowledging that certain semiautomatic rifles are overrepresented in the deadliest events, justifying distinct policy tools depending on whether goals are reducing overall homicide rates or preventing mass-casualty attacks [1] [2] [7]. For the public, the bottom line is clear: most shootings involve handguns, but AR-15–style and AK-style rifles recur among the deadliest mass shootings, so nuanced, multi-pronged strategies are required rather than single-issue approaches [3] [2].