What was homicide rate in DC before, during and after the deployment of the national guard
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
The homicide picture in Washington, D.C. before, during and after the August 11, 2025 National Guard deployment shows a modest decline that began before the federal action, continued through the initial surge and remained lower than comparable prior periods — but the size, timing and significance of the drop are contested and sensitive to how the data window and geography are chosen [1] [2] [3].
1. Before the deployment: a downward trend already underway
City and independent analyses indicate homicides in D.C. had been falling earlier in 2025 compared with 2024: year‑to‑date comparisons reported by the city and by news organizations show substantive declines (for example, a 29% decrease in homicides year‑to‑date compared with 2024 is cited in MPD reporting cited by ABC) and commentators note a multi‑year drop in violence since summer 2023 that predates the August action [1] [4] [5].
2. During the initial 30‑day surge: fewer homicides, but a short window
Analysts and outlets looking at the roughly one‑month emergency period find homicides were lower during that surge: MPD and media tallies put the number of homicides during the initial 30‑day deployment in the low‑to‑mid‑20s (for instance, 24 homicides since Aug. 11 in one MPD‑based compilation) and some short‑period comparisons show a 38–53% decline versus the immediately preceding period or versus the same span in 2024 — figures repeated in ABC and other reporting [1] [6] [3]. Reuters and CBS emphasize that the federal operation added roughly 500 agents to ~3,200 MPD officers and stationed more than 2,000 Guard troops, but Guard rules largely precluded traditional policing, complicating causal claims [7] [8].
3. After the surge: continued lower numbers but attribution disputed
Post‑deployment reporting finds that lower homicide counts persisted in the months after the initial surge, with some outlets noting weeks without homicides and official year‑to‑date counts lower than the prior year (examples include multiple media tallies showing fewer total homicides through late 2025) [9] [10]. However, analysts including The Trace and Reuters caution that the decline began earlier, and city and independent sources offer competing explanations — seasonal variation, falling trends since mid‑2023, intensified federal and local enforcement in particular neighborhoods, and public‑safety initiatives all factor into the interpretation [2] [7] [4].
4. Where the statistics get messy: geography, short windows and differing tallies
Multiple outlets warn that short windows and shifting geographies skew simple before/after comparisons: CBS’s mapping shows Guard and agents were deployed mostly in higher‑crime tourist and downtown areas rather than many high‑homicide neighborhoods, and reporting notes that some crime categories were already declining citywide [8] [2]. MPD’s daily dashboard cautions that its figures are preliminary and use DC Code offense classifications that differ from FBI NIBRS reporting, and national commentators note inconsistent reporting across jurisdictions — all of which weaken direct causal claims linking deployment to homicide declines [11] [5].
5. The cautious bottom line: numbers show fewer homicides after deployment, but causation is unsettled
Across the assembled reporting, the quantifiable finding is consistent: homicide counts in D.C. were lower during and after the August 2025 deployment than in comparable recent periods (multiple outlets cite declines and specific counts such as the mid‑20s during the surge and year‑to‑date drops) [1] [3] [10]. But authoritative skeptics — including data analysts, local officials and news outlets — emphasize that the decline started earlier, that deployments focused on certain neighborhoods, that Guard duties were constrained by law, and that short timeframes and reporting differences mean the causal link between National Guard presence and the homicide decline remains disputed [2] [7] [8].