Which U.S. cities saw the biggest homicide increases in 2020–2021 and what local factors do analysts cite?
Executive summary
The sharp rise in U.S. homicides that began in 2020 was uneven across cities: some places recorded record counts or double‑digit spikes in 2020–2021 (notably Albuquerque, Milwaukee, Memphis, Indianapolis, Syracuse and several smaller cities), while other midsize cities—like St. Petersburg and Austin—saw extraordinarily large proportional jumps in 2021 (108% and 86% reported, respectively) [1] [2] [3]. Analysts do not point to a single cause but emphasize a mix of local vulnerabilities—preexisting high homicide rates, concentrated economic and educational dislocation among young men, pandemic-era disruptions, surges in firearm acquisition, and local policing and staffing dynamics—as factors that combined differently across cities [4] [5] [6] [7].
1. Which cities experienced the largest increases in 2020–2021 and how that varied by measure
National and city‑level reporting highlighted different lists depending on whether journalists used raw counts, per‑capita rates, or percent changes: several media and research reviews flagged Albuquerque, Des Moines, Indianapolis, Memphis, Milwaukee and Syracuse as having their highest homicide totals on record in 2020–2021 [1], Time and other outlets singled out Detroit, Milwaukee and Memphis among large cities with very high 2021 rates [2], while local reporting and aggregated studies found extreme proportional spikes in smaller jurisdictions—St. Petersburg (+108%) and Austin (+86%) among them [3]. Researchers caution that absolute number and rate rankings tell different stories—Chicago and Los Angeles led in total homicides by count, but smaller cities sometimes had far higher per‑capita rates [8].
2. Economic and educational dislocation: a dominant analytical thread
A leading explanation in academic work ties the geography of the spike to where young men in low‑income neighborhoods were suddenly pushed out of work and school during the pandemic; Brookings’ analysis shows cities with larger early‑pandemic job and school losses among teens and young men had larger homicide increases in 2020 and persistence into 2021 [4]. The Council on Criminal Justice similarly points to pandemic stresses and lost programming as exacerbating violence, noting the spike was concentrated in 2020–2021 and linked to disruptions in social and economic supports [5] [7].
3. Firearms, domestic disputes and drug markets: proximate mechanisms
Multiple reports emphasize firearms as the proximate means in most homicides during the surge—analysts note historic increases in gun purchases around 2020 and a rise in the share of homicides involving guns—factors that magnified lethality when interpersonal conflicts or drug market disputes escalated during pandemic conditions [1] [5]. Local hotspot reporting and working papers also identify domestic violence and drug‑related incidents as major contributors in many cities’ case mixes [9] [5].
4. Policing, staffing and local governance—mixed evidence and competing narratives
Debate persists about the role of policing. Some analyses and commentators link bigger proportional homicide spikes to cities that experienced steep declines in police staffing or morale after the summer 2020 protests [6], while other researchers find mixed evidence for a uniform “police pullback” across cities—Minneapolis, for example, did not show a decline in use‑of‑force even as homicides rose [4]. The literature and year‑end reviews emphasize that policing changes interacted with local conditions rather than acting as a single nationwide driver [4] [7].
5. Local variation and the limits of national narratives
Scholars warn against a one‑size‑fits‑all explanation: cities with preexisting vulnerabilities—high poverty, entrenched gun availability, and earlier homicide problems—tended to suffer larger proportional increases, but the pattern varied enough that structural explanations (economic deprivation, education loss), pandemic shocks, firearm flows, and local policing dynamics all appear to have been necessary, interacting causes rather than a sole culprit [6] [4] [7]. Several comprehensive reviews note the evidence is incomplete and causality remains difficult to prove, urging city‑specific study and targeted interventions [7].