Is murder rate the lowest it has ever been ?
Executive summary
Recent analyses from the Council on Criminal Justice and major news outlets report a sharp nationwide drop in murders in 2025 that “might be the lowest murder rate in the U.S. since 1900,” a claim repeated in coverage by The New York Times and CBS News [1] [2]; historical series and government datasets confirm that U.S. homicide rates peaked around the late 1980s–early 1990s and have trended down for decades, but differing sources, definitions and provisional data complicate any definitive “lowest ever” declaration [3] [4] [5].
1. The recent plunge and the headline claim
Analysts cited by the Council on Criminal Justice and reported by CBS News say murders fell more than 20% in 2025—the largest single‑year drop on record—which is the statistical basis for media summaries that the national murder rate may be at its lowest observed level since 1900 [2] [6]; The New York Times echoes that the mid‑2020s declines continued a years‑long reversal of the 2020 spike and that many cities recorded meaningful year‑to‑year decreases [1].
2. What long‑run data show about “ever”
Longitudinal datasets compiled by researchers and public agencies show the U.S. homicide rate rose through the 1970s and peaked around the early 1990s (roughly 10–11 per 100,000), then broadly declined over the next three decades, with averages in the 2000s and 2010s substantially lower than the peak [3] [7]; some modern compilations (and reporting relying on Council on Criminal Justice analyses) find 2025 measures approaching or undercutting rates not seen in well over a century, which is the basis for the “lowest since 1900” framing [1] [2].
3. Important data caveats and definitional traps
Official national tallies use different systems (CDC death certificates, FBI UCR/NCVS/RTCI and independent aggregators) and those systems vary in timing, inclusion rules and whether they count manslaughter or provisional reports—meaning fast public claims can change as final federal data arrive [6] [8] [5]; historians and statisticians also warn that pre‑1930s data are incomplete, so “lowest ever” can mean “lowest in the reliable modern record” rather than literally since the nation’s founding [9] [4].
4. Local variation and political storytelling
National declines mask stark city‑by‑city differences: some large cities saw big drops in 2025 while others remained elevated or rose, and outlets from Fox to Axios note both the broad decline and the handful of persistent trouble spots—facts that political actors on left and right use selectively to promote narratives about policing, policy failures or successes [10] [6] [1]; reporters and analysts caution that headlines touting historic lows can be weaponized by advocates and officials, so context matters [1] [2].
5. Bottom line — measured, not mythic
Based on Council on Criminal Justice analyses and corroborating press reports, 2025 produced the largest one‑year drop on record and strong evidence that the U.S. murder rate is at or near its lowest level in the modern, reliably measured era—often characterized in coverage as “since 1900”—but the claim rests on provisional and heterogeneous data sources, long‑run comparability issues and notable local exceptions, so it should be read as a careful statistical conclusion rather than an absolute, uncontested historical fact [2] [1] [6] [9].