Which large us cities have the highest violent-crime rates per capita and what are their party affiliations?
Executive summary
Among large U.S. cities, recent reporting and compiled lists repeatedly identify Baltimore, Memphis, Detroit, New Orleans and St. Louis among those with the highest violent‑crime or homicide rates per capita; Baltimore’s homicide rate was reported as high as 44.2 per 100,000 in mid‑2025 in some summaries [1], while Visual Capitalist and other rankings place New Orleans and Memphis at the top for homicides per 100,000 [2]. Multiple data‑driven analyses and academic reviews find little evidence that a city mayor’s party alone causes higher violent‑crime rates; studies of hundreds of cities show mayoral party affiliation “made little difference” for crime outcomes [3] [4].
1. Which big cities show the highest violent‑crime or homicide rates? — The lists and what they tell us
News and data summaries repeatedly put Baltimore, Memphis, Detroit, New Orleans and St. Louis near the top of per‑capita violent‑crime and homicide rankings: a mid‑2025 compilation cited Baltimore with a homicide rate around 44.2 per 100,000 [1], Visual Capitalist’s rankings put New Orleans at roughly 46 homicides per 100,000 followed by Memphis at about 41 [2], and other compilations name Detroit and St. Louis among the most affected cities [5]. Caveat: these sources use different methods (city vs. metro area, partial year vs. full year) and some datasets exclude large cities that didn’t report to the FBI, producing variation across lists [6].
2. How reliable are city crime rankings? — Data limits and methodological disputes
Scholars and the FBI itself warn that ranking cities can mislead because reporting differences, definitions, and whether you count city jurisdiction or a metro area matter; the FBI recommends against simplistic rankings [6]. The Council on Criminal Justice’s mid‑year 2025 work — and related reporting — show violent crimes declined in many cities through June 2025, but authors stress that communities still “suffer disturbingly high rates” and that trends differ across offenses and places [7] [8].
3. Party affiliation of city leaders — What the evidence shows
Multiple peer‑reviewed and academic summaries find no detectable causal effect of a mayor’s party on crime levels: research covering hundreds of cities over decades concluded that whether a mayor is Democratic or Republican “made little difference” for crime rates, police staffing or spending [3] [4]. Fact‑checking outlets and academic centers reach the same conclusion: blaming party control alone confuses correlation (more big cities are Democrat‑led) with causation [3] [9].
4. Where politics and headlines diverge — How rhetoric has framed the data
Political leaders have singled out specific “blue” cities for federal action, but analyses show the picture is more mixed: Axios and other outlets note that many of the cities with the highest homicide rates sit in states led by Republicans, and that targeted federal deployments have not necessarily focused on the most violent jurisdictions [10] [11] [12]. The Department of Homeland Security and White House messaging have credited federal enforcement for drops in some measures, while journalists and researchers point to broader national declines that began before recent policy changes [13] [7] [8].
5. Drivers beyond party — Structural explanations for concentrated violence
Reporting and commentary emphasize structural conditions — poverty, concentrated disadvantage, long‑term economic decline, underfunded services — as persistent drivers behind the highest city rates [5] [1]. Analysts argue that short‑term political control does not easily alter such deep socioeconomic dynamics and that evidence‑based, multi‑sector interventions are necessary to sustain declines [7] [8].
6. What the sources don’t say — Important gaps to note
Available sources do not provide a single definitive, up‑to‑date table mapping the top large cities by violent‑crime per capita alongside the current party affiliation of each mayor in one place; instead, they offer overlapping rankings, mid‑year updates, and academic analyses that must be cross‑referenced [6] [7] [3]. They also do not demonstrate a clear causal link from mayoral partisanship to crime trends; the academic literature explicitly reports “no detectable impact” from party on crime outcomes [3].
Bottom line for readers
City crime rankings identify a recurring set of U.S. municipalities with very high per‑capita violent‑crime or homicide rates (Baltimore, Memphis, Detroit, New Orleans, St. Louis appear frequently in sources cited) but methodological differences and reporting limits complicate comparisons [1] [2] [6]. Rigorous academic work shows mayoral party explains little of those differences; researchers and fact‑checkers conclude party labels are a poor shorthand for predicting city crime [3] [4].