Mass murders in 2025
Executive summary
2025 saw a surprising decline in the number of U.S. mass killings compared with recent years: databases tracking incidents that meet the FBI/AP definition (four or more deaths in a 24‑hour period, excluding the perpetrator) recorded just 17 mass killings, the fewest since 2006 [1] [2]. Analysts caution this is likely statistical regression to the mean and not definitive evidence of a lasting downward trend [3].
1. What counts as a "mass murder"? Competing definitions complicate the picture
There is no single, universally accepted definition: the AP/Northeastern/USA Today database and the FBI define "mass killing" as four or more people killed in a 24‑hour period excluding the killer, while other trackers — including Gun Violence Archive and crowd‑sourced Mass Shooting Tracker — use broader criteria that count incidents with four or more people shot regardless of deaths, producing larger case counts and different year‑to‑year totals [4] [5] [6].
2. The headline: 2025 had a historically low number of mass killings
By late 2025, the AP‑led database recorded 17 mass killings, a level not seen since 2006, and Gun Violence Archive reported parallel declines in both mass shootings and mass murders under its broader metrics [2] [1] [4]. News outlets and university researchers framed the year as an unexpected reprieve after spikes in 2018–2019 and the pandemic years [3] [7].
3. Experts urge caution: small numbers, big swings, and regression to the mean
Criminologists emphasize that because the annual totals of mass killings are small, modest numerical changes can create the impression of dramatic trends; James Alan Fox and others argue 2025’s drop likely represents a return to average levels after the unusual spikes of recent years, not a durable shift [3] [8]. Analysts also note mass‑killing counts can swing sharply year‑to‑year, limiting the value of short‑term proclamations [1] [3].
4. Where 2025 incidents happened and what changed about settings
Reporting indicates that none of the mass killings recorded in 2025 occurred at schools, a notable change from past years, and experts pointed to wider adoption of school threat‑assessment policies as one possible mitigating factor for school attacks [9]. However, mass killings continued to occur in diverse settings, from family gatherings and small‑town venues to public events, underlining that risk is not confined to one location type [1] [10].
5. How measurement choices shape public perception and policy debates
Different data sets produce different narratives: narrower "mass killing" counts lend themselves to a news hook about declines, while broader "mass shooting" trackers highlight a larger and more constant problem; advocacy groups, media outlets, and researchers each favor measures that suit their aims — whether focusing attention on fatalities, nonfatal injuries, or prevention strategies — which can create competing policy arguments [6] [5] [4].
6. Missing pieces and limits of current reporting
Available sources do not settle whether specific interventions (e.g., threat assessments, policing changes, or shifts in firearm access) directly caused the 2025 decline; experts cited regression to the mean and possible preventive measures but stressed causal attribution is uncertain and requires longer‑term study [3] [9]. Additionally, crowd‑sourced trackers and institutional databases differ in coverage and methodology, meaning any singular count should be read with caution [5] [4].
7. What to watch going forward
Analysts advise monitoring multi‑year trends rather than single‑year blips, comparing both narrow fatality‑based counts and broader shooting‑based metrics, and examining whether policy changes (school threat assessments, state funding priorities) correlate with lower incidents in specific settings; researchers warn the problem of mass violence remains persistent even when annual tallies temporarily dip [3] [9] [7].